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Happy Valley · 2024-11-27 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 5 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-27 was Class 5 over 1000m. PLENTIFUL, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with HAPPY HORSE second and WIND SPEEDER third. The 4.9 favourite SPEEDY FORTUNE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.57.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 PLENTIFUL CP-/XB/TT 0.57.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 7.4 3/4
2 4 HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 4 10.0 3/4
3 12 WIND SPEEDER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 5 7.6 3/4
4 2 SPEEDY FORTUNE XB1/B2/TT M F Poon · D Eustace 2 4.9 1-1/2
5 7 CIRCUIT TEN H/P/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 1 6.7 1-1/2
6 1 MODEST GENTLEMAN B C L Chau · C H Yip 7 11.0 2-1/4
7 6 ACE TALENT H/P/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 11 12.0 3
8 5 FLYING PHANTOM H Z Purton · J Size 6 7.5 3-3/4
9 11 GOODMANSHIP B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 51.0 4-1/2
10 3 GUSTY FIGHTER CP-/H1/PS1/XB1/TT- L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 44.0 4-3/4
11 9 DIAMOND SOARS B1/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 8 7.1 5-1/4
12 8 PHILOS H/B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 47.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PLENTIFUL2. HAPPY HORSE+0.75L3. WIND SPEEDER+0.75L4. SPEEDY FORTUNE+1.5L5. CIRCUIT TEN+1.5L6. MODEST GENTLEMAN+2.25L7. ACE TALENT+3L8. FLYING PHANTOM+3.75L9. GOODMANSHIP+4.5L10. GUSTY FIGHTER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SPEEDY FORTUNE (24.3%) finished 4th — the winner PLENTIFUL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SPEEDY FORTUNE 24.3% 4.11 4
2 7 CIRCUIT TEN 18.8% 5.33 5
3 4 HAPPY HORSE 9.1% 11.04 2
4 12 WIND SPEEDER 8.7% 11.46 3
5 10 PLENTIFUL 7.7% 12.97 1
6 6 ACE TALENT 7.6% 13.13 7
7 1 MODEST GENTLEMAN 7.5% 13.32 6
8 5 FLYING PHANTOM 5.1% 19.49 8
9 9 DIAMOND SOARS 4.3% 23.01 11
10 3 GUSTY FIGHTER 2.7% 37.41 10
11 8 PHILOS 2.1% 47.50 12
12 11 GOODMANSHIP 2.0% 49.10 9
SPEEDY FORTUNECIRCUIT TENHAPPY HORSEWIND SPEEDERPLENTIFUL — wonACE TALENTMODEST GENTLEMANFLYING PHANTOMDIAMOND SOARSGUSTY FIGHTERPHILOSGOODMANSHIP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 74

PLACE

4 32.5

10 26

12 24.5

QUINELLA

4,10 510

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 144.5

4,12 130

10,12 108.5

FORECAST

10,4 859

TIERCE

10,4,12 6,010

TRIO

4,10,12 1,170

FIRST 4

2,4,10,12 984

QUARTET

10,4,12,2 26,241

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/4 41.5

1/10 478.5