Happy Valley · 2024-11-27 · 22:54
Race 9
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT 1.49.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 6.5 | NOSE |
| 2 | 3 | SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 3 | 8.7 | NOSE |
| 3 | 12 | TOY SOLTERO SR/XB B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 8 | 40.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | SHARPEN BRIGHT B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 9.8 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | FORTUNE SUPERSTAR Led early L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 2 | 7.8 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 5 | 16.0 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 7 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | HAMERON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VOCE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 4 | 38.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP/H/TT Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 12 | 5.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | ILLUMINOUS V J McDonald · F C Lor | J McDonald | F C Lor | 1 | 3.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | ACE WAR CP1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 130.0 | 8-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-27 was Class 3 over 1800m. ROCKET SPADE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by NOSE, with SAMARKAND second and TOY SOLTERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite ILLUMINOUS finished 11th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 17.9% | 5.57 | 10 |
| 2 | 7 | ROCKET SPADE | 14.1% | 7.11 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | ILLUMINOUS | 13.9% | 7.19 | 11 |
| 4 | 6 | COMET SPLENDIDO | 12.4% | 8.05 | 6 |
| 5 | 9 | SHARPEN BRIGHT | 10.9% | 9.17 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | WINNING STEPS | 9.0% | 11.11 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | SAMARKAND | 7.7% | 13.05 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | FORTUNE SUPERSTAR | 5.3% | 18.90 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | HAMERON | 4.4% | 22.86 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VOCE | 2.0% | 50.43 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | TOY SOLTERO | 1.8% | 55.38 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | ACE WAR | 0.6% | 154.91 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 65.5
PLACE
3 32
7 20.5
12 84
QUINELLA
3,7 442
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 123
3,12 626.5
7,12 491.5
FORECAST
7,3 712
TIERCE
7,3,12 22,162
TRIO
3,7,12 6,135
FIRST 4
3,7,9,12 9,582
QUARTET
7,3,12,9 191,843
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
1/11/3 701
1/11/7 2,313
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,11/3,7,12 3,399,528
8TH DOUBLE
11/3 144.5
11/7 369.5
SIX UP
6/5/1/1/11/7 366,402
6,9/2,5/1,3/1,9/7,11/3,7 6,194
8 [P C Ng] —
2 [Z Purton] —