Happy Valley · 2024-11-27 · 20:41
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FATAL BLOW 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 7 | 5.0 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | THE PERFECT MATCH B-/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 2 | 3.2 | SH |
| 3 | 8 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL H Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | GIMME FIVE B C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 3 | 4.1 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | ZETTA FORCE B1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 26.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | SWEET DIAMOND TT B Thompson · P F Yiu | B Thompson | P F Yiu | 5 | 60.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | HAPPY DAY B-/V1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 12 | 54.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | UNIVERSAL BLAZE B/E/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 1 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT TT- M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 6 | 101.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | GLORY CLOUD TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 9 | 6.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR B E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 10 | 44.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | BULB EMPEROR B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 8 | 22.0 | 7-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-27 was Class 4 over 1200m. FATAL BLOW, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by SH, with THE PERFECT MATCH second and NORTHERN FIRE BALL third. The 3.2 favourite THE PERFECT MATCH finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GIMME FIVE | 21.3% | 4.70 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | THE PERFECT MATCH | 16.8% | 5.95 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | FATAL BLOW | 14.8% | 6.74 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL | 13.7% | 7.28 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | GLORY CLOUD | 12.5% | 8.00 | 10 |
| 6 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR | 4.3% | 23.11 | 11 |
| 7 | 12 | UNIVERSAL BLAZE | 4.0% | 25.05 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | HAPPY DAY | 4.0% | 25.30 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | ZETTA FORCE | 3.7% | 27.03 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | BULB EMPEROR | 2.6% | 38.75 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | SWEET DIAMOND | 1.6% | 60.67 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT | 0.6% | 160.44 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 50
PLACE
2 13.5
5 18
8 46
QUINELLA
2,5 85.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 35
2,8 93
5,8 125
FORECAST
5,2 203
TIERCE
5,2,8 1,981
TRIO
2,5,8 382
FIRST 4
2,5,8,11 290
QUARTET
5,2,8,11 6,374
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
6/6/2 707
6/6/5 4,409
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,9/2,5,8 4,680
4TH DOUBLE
6/2 46
6/5 275