Happy Valley · 2024-11-27 · 20:11
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AFFORDABLE Closed strongly B/TT 2.16.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 9 | 7.1 | N |
| 2 | 9 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 5.3 | N |
| 3 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN Closed strongly XB/TT C Y Ho · D Eustace | C Y Ho | D Eustace | 8 | 2.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 10 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | HAKKA RADIANCE Closed strongly B-/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 12 | 23.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 7 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | HAPPY HERO B L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 6 | 23.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | DRAGON STAR XB A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 2 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | PEGASUS GENERAL B M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 3 | 17.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | CONFRINGO CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 11 | 58.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 5 | 7.4 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | SOLAR GOGO Led early B A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 1 | 44.0 | 20 |
| — | 0 | MISTER DAPPER L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-27 was Class 4 over 2200m. AFFORDABLE, ridden by J McDonald and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with MANAGEMENT FOLKS second and CHARITY GAIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite CHARITY GAIN finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 27.8% | 3.60 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN | 20.5% | 4.87 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 8.0% | 12.51 | 11 |
| 4 | 10 | HAKKA RADIANCE | 7.5% | 13.39 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | AFFORDABLE | 7.3% | 13.79 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | PEGASUS GENERAL | 5.8% | 17.27 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | PERFECT PAIRING | 5.7% | 17.49 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | DRAGON STAR | 4.6% | 21.72 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | SERANGOON | 4.3% | 23.42 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | HAPPY HERO | 4.2% | 23.82 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | CONFRINGO | 2.5% | 39.86 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | SOLAR GOGO | 1.9% | 53.79 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 71.5
PLACE
1 13
6 22.5
9 18
QUINELLA
6,9 196
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 46
1,9 39
6,9 65
FORECAST
6,9 348
TIERCE
6,9,1 860
TRIO
1,6,9 107
FIRST 4
1,2,6,9 310
QUARTET
6,9,1,2 8,592
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
6/6 1,099
6/9 108