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Happy Valley · 2024-11-27 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-27 was Class 4 over 1200m. GALLANT VALOUR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Richards, won by HD, with GOLDEN RISE second and VALHALLA third. The 3.8 favourite ROARING BEBE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GALLANT VALOUR B/TT 1.10.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Richards 7 6.8 HD
2 3 GOLDEN RISE J McDonald · J Size 8 5.7 HD
3 11 VALHALLA XB/TT K De Melo · C Fownes 3 26.0 1-3/4
4 6 GOOD PROSPECT H/XB C L Chau · T P Yung 5 20.0 2-1/4
5 9 ALMIGHTY KICK XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 21.0 2-1/4
6 8 ROARING BEBE CP/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 1 3.8 2-1/2
7 2 KING ECCELLENTE B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 16.0 2-3/4
8 5 NEW POWER H/B1 Y L Chung · C W Chang 6 5.6 3-3/4
9 12 PARTY WARRIOR TT L Hewitson · W Y So 11 59.0 5-1/2
10 4 PATCH OF DIAMONDS TT1 M L Yeung · W K Mo 4 40.0 5-3/4
11 7 SEA SAPPHIRE PC-/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 9 6.6 6-1/4
12 10 SO TREASURE P- M Chadwick · M Newnham 12 15.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT VALOUR2. GOLDEN RISE+0.2L3. VALHALLA+1.75L4. GOOD PROSPECT+2.25L5. ALMIGHTY KICK+2.25L6. ROARING BEBE+2.5L7. KING ECCELLENTE+2.75L8. NEW POWER+3.75L9. PARTY WARRIOR+5.5L10. PATCH OF DIAMONDS+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ROARING BEBE (29.9%) finished 6th — the winner GALLANT VALOUR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 ROARING BEBE 29.9% 3.35 6
2 5 NEW POWER 17.1% 5.84 8
3 1 GALLANT VALOUR 16.1% 6.21 1
4 3 GOLDEN RISE 7.1% 14.14 2
5 9 ALMIGHTY KICK 6.1% 16.52 5
6 11 VALHALLA 4.8% 20.71 3
7 2 KING ECCELLENTE 4.4% 22.66 7
8 7 SEA SAPPHIRE 4.3% 23.48 11
9 10 SO TREASURE 4.1% 24.16 12
10 4 PATCH OF DIAMONDS 2.5% 39.89 10
11 12 PARTY WARRIOR 2.2% 45.95 9
12 6 GOOD PROSPECT 1.4% 69.44 4
ROARING BEBENEW POWERGALLANT VALOUR — wonGOLDEN RISEALMIGHTY KICKVALHALLAKING ECCELLENTESEA SAPPHIRESO TREASUREPATCH OF DIAMONDSPARTY WARRIORGOOD PROSPECT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 68

PLACE

1 20.5

3 21.5

11 57

QUINELLA

1,3 171.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 62

1,11 218.5

3,11 201.5

FORECAST

1,3 379

TIERCE

1,3,11 5,658

TRIO

1,3,11 1,220

FIRST 4

1,3,6,11 4,661

QUARTET

1,3,11,6 61,407

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

5/1 281

5/3 63