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Happy Valley · 2024-11-27 · 13:50

Race 7

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-27 was Class 4 over 1200m. BEAUTY DESTINY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-3/4, with TELECOM POWER second and RACINGRACE third. The 3.7 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.09.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · F C Lor 9 4.8 2-3/4
2 9 TELECOM POWER B K De Melo · Y S Tsui 4 12.0 2-3/4
3 6 RACINGRACE XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 6 9.2 3-1/4
4 12 WOOD ON FIRE V/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 1 8.0 3-1/4
5 10 GLORY B CP/H M Chadwick · D J Whyte 2 8.2 3-1/2
6 7 FORTUNE WHISKEY H-/P-/B1/XB1/TT2 M F Poon · D Eustace 10 41.0 3-3/4
7 11 SPEEDY SMARTIE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 11 17.0 4
8 4 LIGHTNING BOLT B/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 3 3.7 5
9 2 LYRICAL MOTION B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 33.0 7-1/2
10 3 COLONEL B L Ferraris · M Newnham 5 5.8 7-1/2
11 5 CARRYON SMILING H/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 7 77.0 11
12 8 INVINCIBLE DELIGHT H B Thompson · J Size 8 121.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY DESTINY2. TELECOM POWER+2.75L3. RACINGRACE+3.25L4. WOOD ON FIRE+3.25L5. GLORY B+3.5L6. FORTUNE WHISKEY+3.75L7. SPEEDY SMARTIE+4L8. LIGHTNING BOLT+5L9. LYRICAL MOTION+7.5L10. COLONEL+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GLORY B (19.8%) finished 5th — the winner BEAUTY DESTINY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 GLORY B 19.8% 5.05 5
2 4 LIGHTNING BOLT 18.8% 5.31 8
3 1 BEAUTY DESTINY 11.3% 8.81 1
4 6 RACINGRACE 9.2% 10.88 3
5 12 WOOD ON FIRE 9.1% 10.93 4
6 3 COLONEL 8.6% 11.65 10
7 2 LYRICAL MOTION 8.2% 12.16 9
8 9 TELECOM POWER 6.5% 15.50 2
9 11 SPEEDY SMARTIE 4.6% 21.75 7
10 7 FORTUNE WHISKEY 1.8% 56.80 6
11 5 CARRYON SMILING 1.2% 84.06 11
12 8 INVINCIBLE DELIGHT 0.9% 114.12 12
GLORY BLIGHTNING BOLTBEAUTY DESTINY — wonRACINGRACEWOOD ON FIRECOLONELLYRICAL MOTIONTELECOM POWERSPEEDY SMARTIEFORTUNE WHISKEYCARRYON SMILINGINVINCIBLE DELIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 48

PLACE

1 20

6 25

9 32.5

QUINELLA

1,9 265

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 87.5

1,9 91.5

6,9 152

FORECAST

1,9 512

TIERCE

1,9,6 3,571

TRIO

1,6,9 837

FIRST 4

1,6,9,12 1,091

QUARTET

1,9,6,12 19,842

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,11/1,6,9 90,734

6TH DOUBLE

1/1 227.5

1/9 145

TRIPLE TRIO

2,5,8/1,3,11/1,6,9 1,657,417

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,5,8/1,3,11/Any Combination 4,896