Happy Valley · 2024-11-27 · 13:50
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-27 was Class 4 over 1200m. BEAUTY DESTINY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-3/4, with TELECOM POWER second and RACINGRACE third. The 3.7 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 9 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | TELECOM POWER B K De Melo · Y S Tsui | K De Melo | Y S Tsui | 4 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | RACINGRACE XB B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 6 | 9.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 8.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | GLORY B CP/H M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 2 | 8.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | FORTUNE WHISKEY H-/P-/B1/XB1/TT2 M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 10 | 41.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | SPEEDY SMARTIE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 11 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | LIGHTNING BOLT B/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 3 | 3.7 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | LYRICAL MOTION B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 12 | 33.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | COLONEL B L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 5 | 5.8 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | CARRYON SMILING H/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 7 | 77.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | INVINCIBLE DELIGHT H B Thompson · J Size | B Thompson | J Size | 8 | 121.0 | 16-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GLORY B | 19.8% | 5.05 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | LIGHTNING BOLT | 18.8% | 5.31 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 11.3% | 8.81 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | RACINGRACE | 9.2% | 10.88 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE | 9.1% | 10.93 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | COLONEL | 8.6% | 11.65 | 10 |
| 7 | 2 | LYRICAL MOTION | 8.2% | 12.16 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | TELECOM POWER | 6.5% | 15.50 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 4.6% | 21.75 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | FORTUNE WHISKEY | 1.8% | 56.80 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | CARRYON SMILING | 1.2% | 84.06 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | INVINCIBLE DELIGHT | 0.9% | 114.12 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 48
PLACE
1 20
6 25
9 32.5
QUINELLA
1,9 265
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 87.5
1,9 91.5
6,9 152
FORECAST
1,9 512
TIERCE
1,9,6 3,571
TRIO
1,6,9 837
FIRST 4
1,6,9,12 1,091
QUARTET
1,9,6,12 19,842
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/1,6,9 90,734
6TH DOUBLE
1/1 227.5
1/9 145
TRIPLE TRIO
2,5,8/1,3,11/1,6,9 1,657,417
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,5,8/1,3,11/Any Combination 4,896