Sha Tin · 2024-12-08 · 04:30
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-08 was Class 4 over 1200m. HAPPY PARK, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with BRILLIANT EXPRESS second and CITY THUNDER third. The 3.6 favourite BRILLIANT EXPRESS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HAPPY PARK 1.09.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 1 | 7.6 | N |
| 2 | 5 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 9 | 3.6 | N |
| 3 | 1 | CITY THUNDER TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 3 | 10.0 | N |
| 4 | 4 | MR ENERGIA B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 10 | 5.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | MONARCH COUNTY TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 2 | 29.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 13 | INVINCIBLE LUCKY B- B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 12 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | LUCKY BLESSING P N Wong · P C Ng | P N Wong | P C Ng | 8 | 87.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | PATCH OF TIME H K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 5 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | RUN RUN TIMING B1/TT J McDonald · C H Yip | J McDonald | C H Yip | 11 | 5.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | FORTUNE BOY T Marquand · D A Hayes | T Marquand | D A Hayes | 14 | 42.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | SONIC PURSUIT TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 7 | 27.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | THE AUSPICIOUS B1 A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 13 | 211.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | SUPER STRONG MAN M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 177.0 | 8 |
| 14 | 14 | DAY DAY VICTORY B1 A Pouchin · T P Yung | A Pouchin | T P Yung | 6 | 136.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PATCH OF TIME | 32.2% | 3.11 | 8 |
| 2 | 11 | HAPPY PARK | 19.3% | 5.17 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS | 10.1% | 9.94 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | MR ENERGIA | 8.7% | 11.43 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | CITY THUNDER | 6.1% | 16.34 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | RUN RUN TIMING | 5.4% | 18.39 | 9 |
| 7 | 13 | INVINCIBLE LUCKY | 3.8% | 26.23 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | FORTUNE BOY | 3.1% | 32.71 | 10 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPER STRONG MAN | 2.9% | 34.20 | 13 |
| 10 | 12 | MONARCH COUNTY | 1.9% | 51.34 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | SONIC PURSUIT | 1.9% | 52.16 | 11 |
| 12 | 14 | DAY DAY VICTORY | 1.6% | 61.10 | 14 |
| 13 | 10 | THE AUSPICIOUS | 1.6% | 62.04 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | LUCKY BLESSING | 1.2% | 81.44 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 76
PLACE
1 30
5 15.5
11 25
QUINELLA
5,11 146.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 111.5
1,11 120.5
5,11 55
FORECAST
11,5 372
TIERCE
11,5,1 3,125
TRIO
1,5,11 423
FIRST 4
1,4,5,11 696
QUARTET
11,5,1,4 17,742