Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-12-08 · 05:40

Race 3

Class 3 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-08 was Class 3 over 1200m. DIVANO, ridden by J McDonald and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with KING PROFIT second and YOUNG SUPERSTAR third. The 3.2 favourite LIFELINE EXPRESS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.08.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DIVANO TT 1.08.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · K W Lui 7 5.9 1-3/4
2 14 KING PROFIT TT A Pouchin · C S Shum 10 185.0 1-3/4
3 3 YOUNG SUPERSTAR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 14 21.0 2
4 12 CHAMPION INSTINCT B M F Poon · D J Hall 2 45.0 3-1/2
5 8 PATCH OF COSMO B L Ferraris · K L Man 3 5.8 4
6 9 SWAGGER BRO M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 134.0 4
7 13 LIFELINE EXPRESS E A Badel · J Size 6 3.2 4-1/4
8 10 VICTORY SKY XB K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 16.0 4-1/2
9 7 NOT USUAL STAR H/TT K De Melo · W Y So 5 35.0 6
10 5 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT P N Wong · T P Yung 4 54.0 6
11 1 SAVVY BRILLIANT XB/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 9 3.2 6
12 6 HALO OF SUCCESS H1/XB1 A Atzeni · D Eustace 11 21.0 7
13 11 C YEAH CP1 H Bentley · K H Ting 8 174.0 7-1/4
14 2 WONDERSTAR B K Teetan · P C Ng 12 65.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIVANO2. KING PROFIT+1.75L3. YOUNG SUPERSTAR+2L4. CHAMPION INSTINCT+3.5L5. PATCH OF COSMO+4L6. SWAGGER BRO+4L7. LIFELINE EXPRESS+4.25L8. VICTORY SKY+4.5L9. NOT USUAL STAR+6L10. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SAVVY BRILLIANT (43.5%) finished 11th — the winner DIVANO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SAVVY BRILLIANT 43.5% 2.30 11
2 13 LIFELINE EXPRESS 12.0% 8.33 7
3 4 DIVANO 11.4% 8.74 1
4 8 PATCH OF COSMO 7.9% 12.67 5
5 3 YOUNG SUPERSTAR 6.1% 16.38 3
6 12 CHAMPION INSTINCT 2.8% 35.50 4
7 10 VICTORY SKY 2.7% 36.89 8
8 7 NOT USUAL STAR 2.5% 39.39 9
9 2 WONDERSTAR 2.2% 45.10 14
10 6 HALO OF SUCCESS 2.0% 49.41 12
11 9 SWAGGER BRO 1.9% 53.00 6
12 5 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 1.9% 53.79 10
13 11 C YEAH 1.6% 62.75 13
14 14 KING PROFIT 1.4% 73.00 2
SAVVY BRILLIANTLIFELINE EXPRESSDIVANO — wonPATCH OF COSMOYOUNG SUPERSTARCHAMPION INSTINCTVICTORY SKYNOT USUAL STARWONDERSTARHALO OF SUCCESSSWAGGER BROEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSC YEAHKING PROFIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 59.5

PLACE

3 57.5

4 20

14 315.5

QUINELLA

4,14 4,533

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 225.5

3,14 3,727.5

4,14 1,204

FORECAST

4,14 5,484

TIERCE

4,14,3 104,422

TRIO

3,4,14 21,507

FIRST 4

3,4,12,14 97,172

QUARTET

4,14,3,12 1,415,478

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/4 488

7/14 2,449.5