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Sha Tin · 2024-12-08 · 09:30

Race 9

Class 3 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-08 was Class 3 over 1400m. MARKWIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by W K Mo, won by 1-1/4, with CHARMING LEGEND second and BEAUTY CRESCENT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.52
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 MARKWIN Closed strongly TT 1.21.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · W K Mo 12 2.8 1-1/4
2 6 CHARMING LEGEND J McDonald · C S Shum 10 4.1 1-1/4
3 5 BEAUTY CRESCENT Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 5 16.0 2
4 3 JOHANNES BRAHMS Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng 4 5.3 2
5 4 TAMRA BLITZ Closed strongly H/SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 132.0 2-1/2
6 1 LUCY IN THE SKY H K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 11.0 2-3/4
7 12 MAGNIFICENT NINE B/E A Atzeni · J Size 3 7.5 3-1/4
8 7 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly V-/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 11 28.0 4-1/2
9 10 SUPER LOVE DRAGON TT K De Melo · W Y So 1 49.0 4-3/4
10 2 BRIGHT DAY Led early B1 H Bowman · K L Man 6 98.0 5-1/2
11 8 SWEET BRIAR V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 37.0 5-3/4
12 9 LESLIE B M Barzalona · C W Chang 2 24.0 7
13 14 HYPER DRAGON BALL V-/H1/TT A Pouchin · T P Yung 9 156.0 7-1/4
14 11 LUCKY COMBINATION B M Chadwick · F C Lor 14 165.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MARKWIN2. CHARMING LEGEND+1.25L3. BEAUTY CRESCENT+2L4. JOHANNES BRAHMS+2L5. TAMRA BLITZ+2.5L6. LUCY IN THE SKY+2.75L7. MAGNIFICENT NINE+3.25L8. GALAXY WITNESS+4.5L9. SUPER LOVE DRAGON+4.75L10. BRIGHT DAY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick JOHANNES BRAHMS (23.0%) finished 4th — the winner MARKWIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 JOHANNES BRAHMS 23.0% 4.36 4
2 13 MARKWIN 15.3% 6.53 1
3 6 CHARMING LEGEND 13.8% 7.24 2
4 12 MAGNIFICENT NINE 12.0% 8.35 7
5 1 LUCY IN THE SKY 7.0% 14.19 6
6 10 SUPER LOVE DRAGON 5.5% 18.25 9
7 9 LESLIE 4.9% 20.39 12
8 7 GALAXY WITNESS 4.3% 23.02 8
9 5 BEAUTY CRESCENT 3.7% 27.28 3
10 8 SWEET BRIAR 3.3% 30.61 11
11 2 BRIGHT DAY 3.1% 32.34 10
12 4 TAMRA BLITZ 2.1% 46.55 5
13 11 LUCKY COMBINATION 1.0% 97.43 14
14 14 HYPER DRAGON BALL 1.0% 103.50 13
JOHANNES BRAHMSMARKWIN — wonCHARMING LEGENDMAGNIFICENT NINELUCY IN THE SKYSUPER LOVE DRAGONLESLIEGALAXY WITNESSBEAUTY CRESCENTSWEET BRIARBRIGHT DAYTAMRA BLITZLUCKY COMBINATIONHYPER DRAGON BALL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 28.5

PLACE

5 32

6 17.5

13 13

QUINELLA

6,13 66

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 78

5,13 78

6,13 30.5

FORECAST

13,6 138

TIERCE

13,6,5 1,161

TRIO

5,6,13 292

FIRST 4

3,5,6,13 339

QUARTET

13,6,5,3 8,543

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

1/6 10.5

1/13 58.5