Sha Tin · 2024-12-08 · 08:50
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-08 was Group 1 over 2000m. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with LIBERTY ISLAND second and TASTIERA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 2.00.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 1 | 1.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | LIBERTY ISLAND Closed strongly Y Kawada · M Nakauchida | Y Kawada | M Nakauchida | 5 | 9.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | TASTIERA XB/TT D Lane · N Hori | D Lane | N Hori | 7 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | THE FOXES Closed strongly XB O Murphy · A M Balding | O Murphy | A M Balding | 11 | 114.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | STRAIGHT ARRON XB B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 4 | 62.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | CALIF Closed strongly B/XB A De Vries · C & Y Lerner | A De Vries | C & Y Lerner | 8 | 82.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | CONTENT Closed strongly E/XB R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 9 | 67.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | SPIRIT DANCER XB O Orr · R Fahey | O Orr | R Fahey | 10 | 51.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | NIMBLE NIMBUS V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 2 | 86.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | WINGSPAN Led early W Lordan · A P O'Brien | W Lordan | A P O'Brien | 3 | 60.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | ENCOUNTERED B H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 6 | 96.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | CONTENT | 3.7% | 26.92 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | SPIRIT DANCER | 3.6% | 28.07 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | LIBERTY ISLAND | 3.2% | 31.12 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | ENCOUNTERED | 3.1% | 32.50 | 11 |
| 6 | 3 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 3.0% | 33.51 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | CALIF | 2.5% | 40.04 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | WINGSPAN | 2.3% | 44.03 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | TASTIERA | 2.2% | 44.89 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | NIMBLE NIMBUS | 1.9% | 53.56 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | THE FOXES | 1.8% | 55.68 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 11
PLACE
1 10.1
4 21.5
9 16
QUINELLA
1,9 26
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 21.5
1,9 15
4,9 48.5
FORECAST
1,9 34
TIERCE
1,9,4 100
TRIO
1,4,9 42
FIRST 4
1,4,7,9 312
QUARTET
1,9,4,7 1,348
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5/1,4,9 11,165
7TH DOUBLE
2/1 32
2/9 42