Sha Tin · 2024-12-08 · 06:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-08 was Group 1 over 2400m. GIAVELLOTTO, ridden by O Murphy and trained by M Botti, won by 2-1/2, with DUBAI HONOUR second and STELLENBOSCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite STELLENBOSCH finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GIAVELLOTTO Closed strongly SR 2.27.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) O Murphy · M Botti | O Murphy | M Botti | 5 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | DUBAI HONOUR Closed strongly XB/TT T Marquand · W J Haggas | T Marquand | W J Haggas | 6 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | STELLENBOSCH Closed strongly H/SR/TT J Moreira · S Kunieda | J Moreira | S Kunieda | 13 | 3.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | ENSUED J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 8 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | LUXEMBOURG R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 9 | 6.2 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | MARQUISAT Closed strongly M Barzalona · A Fabre | M Barzalona | A Fabre | 12 | 6.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 11 | 69.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | IRESINE Closed strongly M Velon · J-P Gauvin | M Velon | J-P Gauvin | 4 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | CONTINUOUS Closed strongly W Lordan · A P O'Brien | W Lordan | A P O'Brien | 7 | 32.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | LA CITY BLANCHE TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 54.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | PRADARIA Led early C Demuro · M Ikezoe | C Demuro | M Ikezoe | 2 | 20.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | WITHOUT A FIGHT XB M Zahra · A & S Freedman | M Zahra | A & S Freedman | 1 | 5.9 | 16 |
| 13 | 11 | KA YING GENERATION PC A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 3 | 45.0 | 16-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | STELLENBOSCH | 14.2% | 7.05 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | LUXEMBOURG | 13.3% | 7.50 | 5 |
| 3 | 12 | ENSUED | 12.7% | 7.85 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | DUBAI HONOUR | 12.6% | 7.94 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | MARQUISAT | 10.8% | 9.26 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | GIAVELLOTTO | 7.3% | 13.61 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | WITHOUT A FIGHT | 5.0% | 20.05 | 12 |
| 8 | 5 | IRESINE | 4.6% | 21.63 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | PRADARIA | 4.6% | 21.83 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | CONTINUOUS | 4.4% | 22.87 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 4.3% | 23.23 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | KA YING GENERATION | 3.1% | 31.87 | 13 |
| 13 | 8 | FIVE G PATCH | 3.0% | 33.30 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 122.5
PLACE
2 30.5
4 38
13 16.5
QUINELLA
2,4 543
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 158
2,13 92
4,13 119
FORECAST
2,4 1,048
TIERCE
2,4,13 5,883
TRIO
2,4,13 792
FIRST 4
2,4,12,13 3,138
QUARTET
2,4,13,12 89,423
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,14/2,4,13 1,392,902
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 713
4/4 160