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Happy Valley · 2025-01-08 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-08 was Class 4 over 1200m. FORTUNE WHISKEY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D Eustace, won by 3/4, with GOLDEN RISE second and EXCELLENT PEERS third. The 2.1 favourite GOLDEN RISE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FORTUNE WHISKEY B/TT 1.09.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D Eustace 2 6.1 3/4
2 4 GOLDEN RISE B1 Z Purton · J Size 5 2.1 3/4
3 6 EXCELLENT PEERS H-/CP/XB A Badel · F C Lor 12 32.0 3-1/4
4 2 STREET CONQUEROR TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 7.9 3-1/2
5 1 SATIRICAL FAN CP/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 3 15.0 4-3/4
6 7 NIGHT PUROSANGUE K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 61.0 5-1/2
7 3 PRIME MORTAR V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 6 15.0 5-3/4
8 10 SPICY KNUCKLES H/CP1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 32.0 7
9 9 SHINE BRIGHT B B Thompson · C H Yip 7 155.0 7-1/4
10 5 HAPPY DAY CP1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 9 37.0 8
11 8 LOADED WITH FLUKE CP A Pouchin · D J Whyte 11 118.0 10-1/2
12 11 AFFIRM V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 10 4.8 41-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE WHISKEY2. GOLDEN RISE+0.75L3. EXCELLENT PEERS+3.25L4. STREET CONQUEROR+3.5L5. SATIRICAL FAN+4.75L6. NIGHT PUROSANGUE+5.5L7. PRIME MORTAR+5.75L8. SPICY KNUCKLES+7L9. SHINE BRIGHT+7.25L10. HAPPY DAY+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick AFFIRM (26.0%) finished 12th — the winner FORTUNE WHISKEY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 AFFIRM 26.0% 3.84 12
2 12 FORTUNE WHISKEY 25.7% 3.89 1
3 4 GOLDEN RISE 18.6% 5.39 2
4 2 STREET CONQUEROR 9.9% 10.07 4
5 3 PRIME MORTAR 6.7% 14.83 7
6 6 EXCELLENT PEERS 3.5% 28.25 3
7 5 HAPPY DAY 3.2% 31.01 10
8 1 SATIRICAL FAN 2.6% 38.16 5
9 10 SPICY KNUCKLES 1.5% 68.29 8
10 8 LOADED WITH FLUKE 1.1% 92.25 11
11 7 NIGHT PUROSANGUE 0.6% 179.90 6
12 9 SHINE BRIGHT 0.5% 182.34 9
AFFIRMFORTUNE WHISKEY — wonGOLDEN RISESTREET CONQUERORPRIME MORTAREXCELLENT PEERSHAPPY DAYSATIRICAL FANSPICY KNUCKLESLOADED WITH FLUKENIGHT PUROSANGUESHINE BRIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 61

PLACE

4 12.5

6 62

12 18

QUINELLA

4,12 55

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 93

4,12 24.5

6,12 194

FORECAST

12,4 185

TIERCE

12,4,6 2,033

TRIO

4,6,12 420

FIRST 4

2,4,6,12 438

QUARTET

12,4,6,2 9,560

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/4 122

3/12 940