Happy Valley · 2025-01-08 · 19:41
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY COMMANDER Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 7 | 7.9 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | THE AZURE Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 5.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 1 | 14.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | APOLAR FIGHTER Closed strongly B/TT A Pouchin · D Eustace | A Pouchin | D Eustace | 3 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | U S S CONSTITUTION Closed strongly H/TT B Thompson · J Size | B Thompson | J Size | 9 | 61.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 29.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | FOREMOST TEDDY V/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 2 | 6.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | TEAM HAPPY B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 10 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPER BABY Led early TT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 5 | 9.1 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | STARMEN CP-/H1/P1/TT- K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 8 | 16.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | HYPER DRAGON BALL H/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 12 | 72.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | NINJA DERBY H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 6 | 2.9 | 12-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-08 was Class 4 over 1650m. MIGHTY COMMANDER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with THE AZURE second and GOOD LUCK WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite NINJA DERBY finished 12th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 20.7% | 4.82 | 7 |
| 2 | 9 | NINJA DERBY | 19.4% | 5.14 | 12 |
| 3 | 4 | THE AZURE | 18.7% | 5.34 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 10.1% | 9.88 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | GOOD LUCK WIN | 9.5% | 10.49 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | APOLAR FIGHTER | 4.7% | 21.07 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | SUPER BABY | 4.3% | 23.35 | 9 |
| 8 | 3 | TEAM HAPPY | 3.8% | 26.39 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | VIVA HUNTER | 3.6% | 27.79 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | HYPER DRAGON BALL | 1.9% | 51.56 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | STARMEN | 1.6% | 60.62 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | U S S CONSTITUTION | 1.4% | 69.21 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 79
PLACE
2 22
4 16.5
5 41.5
QUINELLA
2,4 222
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 68.5
2,5 173
4,5 84
FORECAST
2,4 414
TIERCE
2,4,5 3,980
TRIO
2,4,5 772
FIRST 4
2,4,5,8 2,176
QUARTET
2,4,5,8 40,560
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,12/2,4,5 28,961
2ND DOUBLE
12/2 343.5
12/4 36