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Happy Valley · 2025-01-08 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-08 was Class 4 over 1200m. JUDY'S GREAT, ridden by H T Mo and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with BEAUTY LIGHT second and SIGHT HAPPY third. The 2.8 favourite BEAUTY LIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 JUDY'S GREAT TT 1.10.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · C S Shum 9 65.0 N
2 1 BEAUTY LIGHT Z Purton · J Size 8 2.8 N
3 4 SIGHT HAPPY CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 7.0 N
4 11 DRACO H-/CP1/TT C L Chau · P F Yiu 3 3.9 3/4
5 12 SHINKANSEN CP/H/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte 11 14.0 1-1/2
6 10 THE PRIME B/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 4 58.0 2
7 8 BULB EMPEROR B/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 10 68.0 2-3/4
8 9 CIRCUS REEL B Thompson · D J Hall 1 13.0 3
9 7 LUCKY GENERATIONS H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 5 7.1 3-1/2
10 5 HAPPY TANGO B A Atzeni · Y S Tsui 6 27.0 4-1/4
11 3 IRON LEGION B1/TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 26.0 4-1/2
12 2 BRAVE JOY TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 18.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUDY'S GREAT2. BEAUTY LIGHT+0.05L3. SIGHT HAPPY+0.05L4. DRACO+0.75L5. SHINKANSEN+1.5L6. THE PRIME+2L7. BULB EMPEROR+2.75L8. CIRCUS REEL+3L9. LUCKY GENERATIONS+3.5L10. HAPPY TANGO+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick BEAUTY LIGHT (22.8%) finished 2nd — the winner JUDY'S GREAT was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY LIGHT 22.8% 4.39 2
2 7 LUCKY GENERATIONS 17.7% 5.64 9
3 2 BRAVE JOY 16.3% 6.14 12
4 11 DRACO 9.2% 10.84 4
5 3 IRON LEGION 7.9% 12.72 11
6 12 SHINKANSEN 6.1% 16.26 5
7 4 SIGHT HAPPY 5.3% 18.86 3
8 5 HAPPY TANGO 4.3% 23.19 10
9 9 CIRCUS REEL 3.8% 26.17 8
10 10 THE PRIME 2.4% 41.41 6
11 6 JUDY'S GREAT 2.2% 45.49 1
12 8 BULB EMPEROR 1.9% 51.36 7
BEAUTY LIGHTLUCKY GENERATIONSBRAVE JOYDRACOIRON LEGIONSHINKANSENSIGHT HAPPYHAPPY TANGOCIRCUS REELTHE PRIMEJUDY'S GREAT — wonBULB EMPEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 655.5

PLACE

1 16.5

4 22.5

6 122.5

QUINELLA

1,6 1,046

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 52

1,6 327.5

4,6 504.5

FORECAST

6,1 3,308

TIERCE

6,1,4 26,037

TRIO

1,4,6 2,135

FIRST 4

1,4,6,11 1,631

QUARTET

6,1,4,11 89,812

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 45

2/6 5,035.5