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Happy Valley · 2025-01-08 · 14:55

Race 9

Class 3 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-08 was Class 3 over 1800m. SPEED DRAGON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with CALIFORNIATOTALITY second and QUANTUM PATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite SUPER UNICORN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.49.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B 1.49.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 19.0 1/2
2 4 CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 10 4.8 1/2
3 8 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly B-/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 11 9.8 3/4
4 1 NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 4 7.0 2-1/4
5 5 SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H A Badel · J Size 7 16.0 2-1/2
6 6 SUPER UNICORN TT K C Leung · F C Lor 8 4.6 3
7 3 SAMARKAND CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 6 14.0 3
8 9 SUNSTRIDER B K Teetan · D J Hall 5 9.9 3
9 7 COMET SPLENDIDO TT H Bentley · C S Shum 1 15.0 3-1/4
10 11 DILBAGH SR-/XB/CP1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 21.0 4-1/2
11 12 SURE JOYFUL TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 9 23.0 6-1/4
12 10 TOY SOLTERO Led early SR/XB Z Purton · C W Chang 2 9.1 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEED DRAGON2. CALIFORNIATOTALITY+0.5L3. QUANTUM PATCH+0.75L4. NOBLE PURSUIT+2.25L5. SIMPLE HEDGE+2.5L6. SUPER UNICORN+3L7. SAMARKAND+3L8. SUNSTRIDER+3L9. COMET SPLENDIDO+3.25L10. DILBAGH+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUNSTRIDER (18.5%) finished 8th — the winner SPEED DRAGON was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SUNSTRIDER 18.5% 5.39 8
2 1 NOBLE PURSUIT 16.4% 6.09 4
3 4 CALIFORNIATOTALITY 15.8% 6.32 2
4 10 TOY SOLTERO 10.5% 9.52 12
5 6 SUPER UNICORN 10.0% 10.04 6
6 3 SAMARKAND 6.9% 14.42 7
7 5 SIMPLE HEDGE 4.7% 21.09 5
8 8 QUANTUM PATCH 4.6% 21.88 3
9 2 SPEED DRAGON 4.2% 23.65 1
10 12 SURE JOYFUL 3.8% 26.13 11
11 7 COMET SPLENDIDO 3.5% 28.31 9
12 11 DILBAGH 0.9% 108.26 10
SUNSTRIDERNOBLE PURSUITCALIFORNIATOTALITYTOY SOLTEROSUPER UNICORNSAMARKANDSIMPLE HEDGEQUANTUM PATCHSPEED DRAGON — wonSURE JOYFULCOMET SPLENDIDODILBAGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 198.5

PLACE

2 58

4 23

8 32.5

QUINELLA

2,4 497

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 175

2,8 311

4,8 90.5

FORECAST

2,4 1,362

TIERCE

2,4,8 12,577

TRIO

2,4,8 2,093

FIRST 4

1,2,4,8 3,140

QUARTET

2,4,8,1 85,410

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

7/4/2 6,076

7/4/4 316

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,12/2,4,8 98,443

8TH DOUBLE

4/2 1,618.5

4/4 82

SIX UP

1,6/2,5/10,11/1,7/4,8/2,4 4,864

3 [M F Poon]

2 [C S Shum]