Happy Valley · 2025-01-08 · 14:55
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-01-08 was Class 3 over 1800m. SPEED DRAGON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with CALIFORNIATOTALITY second and QUANTUM PATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite SUPER UNICORN finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B 1.49.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 19.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 10 | 4.8 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly B-/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 11 | 9.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 4 | 7.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 7 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | SUPER UNICORN TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 4.6 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | SAMARKAND CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 6 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | SUNSTRIDER B K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 5 | 9.9 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | COMET SPLENDIDO TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 1 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | DILBAGH SR-/XB/CP1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 21.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | SURE JOYFUL TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 9 | 23.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | TOY SOLTERO Led early SR/XB Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 2 | 9.1 | 16-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SUNSTRIDER | 18.5% | 5.39 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 16.4% | 6.09 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY | 15.8% | 6.32 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | TOY SOLTERO | 10.5% | 9.52 | 12 |
| 5 | 6 | SUPER UNICORN | 10.0% | 10.04 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | SAMARKAND | 6.9% | 14.42 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 4.7% | 21.09 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | QUANTUM PATCH | 4.6% | 21.88 | 3 |
| 9 | 2 | SPEED DRAGON | 4.2% | 23.65 | 1 |
| 10 | 12 | SURE JOYFUL | 3.8% | 26.13 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | COMET SPLENDIDO | 3.5% | 28.31 | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | DILBAGH | 0.9% | 108.26 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 198.5
PLACE
2 58
4 23
8 32.5
QUINELLA
2,4 497
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 175
2,8 311
4,8 90.5
FORECAST
2,4 1,362
TIERCE
2,4,8 12,577
TRIO
2,4,8 2,093
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 3,140
QUARTET
2,4,8,1 85,410
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
7/4/2 6,076
7/4/4 316
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,12/2,4,8 98,443
8TH DOUBLE
4/2 1,618.5
4/4 82
SIX UP
1,6/2,5/10,11/1,7/4,8/2,4 4,864
3 [M F Poon] —
2 [C S Shum] —