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Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 04:35

Race 1

Class 5 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 5 over 1600m. GALLANT CROWN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with IVICTORIAM second and CASA LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite PODIUM finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.34.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT 1.34.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · D A Hayes 3 8.7 1-1/2
2 8 IVICTORIAM Closed strongly TT B Thompson · J Richards 2 20.0 1-1/2
3 10 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly P/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 6 28.0 1-3/4
4 11 GOLD TACK Closed strongly CP K De Melo · D J Hall 10 25.0 2
5 14 LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly V A Badel · K L Man 1 17.0 2-3/4
6 4 PODIUM TT H Bowman · D Eustace 7 3.1 3
7 1 CHILLI BABA Closed strongly B L Ferraris · P F Yiu 11 16.0 3-1/4
8 6 ON THE LASH PC/XB/TT- A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 20.0 4-1/2
9 9 FIRE BALL CP K Teetan · C H Yip 14 8.7 5-3/4
10 12 MULTIDARLING Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 9 27.0 5-3/4
11 5 MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT H Bentley · W Y So 12 8.4 6-1/2
12 7 FRUITY WARRIOR Led early TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 13 12.0 7-3/4
13 3 LITTLE FAIRY B/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 4 10.0 8
14 13 WINNING SEVEN B/TT P N Wong · D J Whyte 5 28.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT CROWN2. IVICTORIAM+1.5L3. CASA LEGEND+1.75L4. GOLD TACK+2L5. LEATHER MASTER+2.75L6. PODIUM+3L7. CHILLI BABA+3.25L8. ON THE LASH+4.5L9. FIRE BALL+5.75L10. MULTIDARLING+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PODIUM (17.5%) finished 6th — the winner GALLANT CROWN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PODIUM 17.5% 5.73 6
2 5 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 13.6% 7.35 11
3 3 LITTLE FAIRY 9.0% 11.07 13
4 7 FRUITY WARRIOR 8.8% 11.38 12
5 2 GALLANT CROWN 8.5% 11.77 1
6 11 GOLD TACK 6.2% 16.15 4
7 6 ON THE LASH 6.0% 16.54 8
8 1 CHILLI BABA 6.0% 16.60 7
9 9 FIRE BALL 6.0% 16.70 9
10 14 LEATHER MASTER 4.7% 21.20 5
11 13 WINNING SEVEN 4.7% 21.49 14
12 10 CASA LEGEND 3.6% 27.98 3
13 12 MULTIDARLING 3.4% 29.31 10
14 8 IVICTORIAM 2.0% 49.51 2
PODIUMMANYTHANKS FOREVERLITTLE FAIRYFRUITY WARRIORGALLANT CROWN — wonGOLD TACKON THE LASHCHILLI BABAFIRE BALLLEATHER MASTERWINNING SEVENCASA LEGENDMULTIDARLINGIVICTORIAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 87.5

PLACE

2 31

8 61

10 67

QUINELLA

2,8 796

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 276.5

2,10 362

8,10 647

FORECAST

2,8 1,664

TIERCE

2,8,10 30,371

TRIO

2,8,10 6,661

FIRST 4

2,8,10,11 37,970

QUARTET

2,8,10,11 979,624