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Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 06:05

Race 4

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 4 over 1400m. MAGNIFICENT NINE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 1, with FORERUNNER second and BEAUTIFUL WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 MAGNIFICENT NINE Closed strongly B/E 1.21.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 7 2.6 1
2 3 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT H Bowman · W K Mo 1 4.5 1
3 14 BEAUTIFUL WIN Closed strongly CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So 9 24.0 1-1/4
4 4 TELECOM DRAGON Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 5 10.0 3
5 7 MUSANG KING B K C Leung · F C Lor 2 23.0 3-1/4
6 9 JOLLY JUMPER CP1/TT A Badel · T P Yung 11 12.0 4
7 12 CIRCUIT MIGHTY B2/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 4 6.9 4-3/4
8 11 YOUNG HORIZON CP E C W Wong · D A Hayes 12 48.0 5-1/4
9 8 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT Closed strongly CP1/TT1 K Teetan · J Richards 13 98.0 6-1/4
10 2 RICH HORSE XB/H1 B Thompson · D J Hall 3 172.0 6-1/2
11 13 LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B H Doyle · K W Lui 8 18.0 8-1/4
12 10 LUCKY BLESSING Led early B T Marquand · P C Ng 14 11.0 8-1/2
13 5 D STAR B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 10 53.0 8-3/4
14 6 MAGIC COMBO TT1 H T Mo · C S Shum 6 85.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAGNIFICENT NINE2. FORERUNNER+1L3. BEAUTIFUL WIN+1.25L4. TELECOM DRAGON+3L5. MUSANG KING+3.25L6. JOLLY JUMPER+4L7. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+4.75L8. YOUNG HORIZON+5.25L9. ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT+6.25L10. RICH HORSE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FORERUNNER (20.1%) finished 2nd — the winner MAGNIFICENT NINE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FORERUNNER 20.1% 4.98 2
2 13 LUCKY GOLD 13.0% 7.72 11
3 1 MAGNIFICENT NINE 12.1% 8.23 1
4 4 TELECOM DRAGON 8.0% 12.47 4
5 12 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 6.9% 14.60 7
6 6 MAGIC COMBO 6.5% 15.33 14
7 9 JOLLY JUMPER 6.0% 16.72 6
8 8 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT 5.8% 17.32 9
9 10 LUCKY BLESSING 5.4% 18.43 12
10 11 YOUNG HORIZON 4.6% 21.74 8
11 14 BEAUTIFUL WIN 3.7% 27.20 3
12 5 D STAR 3.6% 27.62 13
13 7 MUSANG KING 3.5% 28.89 5
14 2 RICH HORSE 0.9% 115.90 10
FORERUNNERLUCKY GOLDMAGNIFICENT NINE — wonTELECOM DRAGONCIRCUIT MIGHTYMAGIC COMBOJOLLY JUMPERROSEWOOD FLEETFOOTLUCKY BLESSINGYOUNG HORIZONBEAUTIFUL WIND STARMUSANG KINGRICH HORSE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 26

PLACE

1 12.5

3 16.5

14 55

QUINELLA

1,3 58

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 25.5

1,14 105.5

3,14 142

FORECAST

1,3 107

TIERCE

1,3,14 1,100

TRIO

1,3,14 338

FIRST 4

1,3,4,14 484

QUARTET

1,3,14,4 6,921

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

1/1 70

1/3 29