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Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 07:05

Race 6

Class 4 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 4 over 1800m. BILLIONAIRE SECRET, ridden by H Doyle and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with VOLCANIC SPARK second and BEAUTY ALLIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.9 favourite SOARING BRONCO finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.46.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly B/H/XB 1.46.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Doyle · K H Ting 10 13.0 SH
2 4 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 6.2 SH
3 2 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 12 6.8 1-1/4
4 11 HAKKA RADIANCE Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · C S Shum 14 24.0 1-1/2
5 7 ME TIME Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 15.0 2-3/4
6 12 CALIFORNIA MOXIE B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 3 10.0 3
7 10 CHATER GOLD CP K C Leung · D A Hayes 5 8.0 3
8 3 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · F C Lor 7 47.0 6
9 1 TOY SOLTERO H/SR B Thompson · C W Chang 9 25.0 6
10 14 SOARING BRONCO PC/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 11 5.9 7
11 8 APOLAR FIGHTER B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 4 16.0 10-1/2
12 9 HAPPY HERO B A Badel · M Newnham 2 15.0 11
13 13 CERVIN TT M Chadwick · W Y So 1 8.0 13-1/4
14 6 DEVILDOM Led early CP1 K De Melo · T P Yung 13 50.0 31-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BILLIONAIRE SECRET2. VOLCANIC SPARK+0.1L3. BEAUTY ALLIANCE+1.25L4. HAKKA RADIANCE+1.5L5. ME TIME+2.75L6. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+3L7. CHATER GOLD+3L8. CAN'T GO WONG+6L9. TOY SOLTERO+6L10. SOARING BRONCO+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VOLCANIC SPARK (12.0%) finished 2nd — the winner BILLIONAIRE SECRET was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 VOLCANIC SPARK 12.0% 8.36 2
2 7 ME TIME 11.6% 8.60 5
3 13 CERVIN 10.9% 9.16 13
4 2 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 10.1% 9.88 3
5 14 SOARING BRONCO 8.7% 11.47 10
6 10 CHATER GOLD 7.0% 14.35 7
7 12 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 6.9% 14.54 6
8 3 CAN'T GO WONG 6.4% 15.62 8
9 11 HAKKA RADIANCE 6.0% 16.76 4
10 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 5.7% 17.40 1
11 8 APOLAR FIGHTER 5.3% 18.77 11
12 9 HAPPY HERO 4.3% 23.31 12
13 6 DEVILDOM 2.6% 37.97 14
14 1 TOY SOLTERO 2.4% 41.22 9
VOLCANIC SPARKME TIMECERVINBEAUTY ALLIANCESOARING BRONCOCHATER GOLDCALIFORNIA MOXIECAN'T GO WONGHAKKA RADIANCEBILLIONAIRE SECRET — wonAPOLAR FIGHTERHAPPY HERODEVILDOMTOY SOLTERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 132

PLACE

2 24.5

4 22.5

5 43

QUINELLA

4,5 335.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 74

2,5 166

4,5 118.5

FORECAST

5,4 682

TIERCE

5,4,2 2,364

TRIO

2,4,5 353

FIRST 4

2,4,5,11 3,834

QUARTET

5,4,2,11 81,730

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

2/4 26

2/5 298.5