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Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 15:03

Race 6

Class 4 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.46.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly B/H/XB 1.46.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Doyle · K H Ting 10 13.0 SH
2 4 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 6.2 SH
3 2 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 12 6.8 1-1/4
4 11 HAKKA RADIANCE Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · C S Shum 14 24.0 1-1/2
5 7 ME TIME Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 15.0 2-3/4
6 12 CALIFORNIA MOXIE B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 3 10.0 3
7 10 CHATER GOLD CP K C Leung · D A Hayes 5 8.0 3
8 3 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · F C Lor 7 47.0 6
9 1 TOY SOLTERO H/SR B Thompson · C W Chang 9 25.0 6
10 14 SOARING BRONCO PC/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 11 5.9 7
11 8 APOLAR FIGHTER B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 4 16.0 10-1/2
12 9 HAPPY HERO B A Badel · M Newnham 2 15.0 11
13 13 CERVIN TT M Chadwick · W Y So 1 8.0 13-1/4
14 6 DEVILDOM Led early CP1 K De Melo · T P Yung 13 50.0 31-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 4 over 1800m. BILLIONAIRE SECRET, ridden by H Doyle and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with VOLCANIC SPARK second and BEAUTY ALLIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.9 favourite SOARING BRONCO finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BILLIONAIRE SECRET—2. VOLCANIC SPARK+0.1L3. BEAUTY ALLIANCE+1.25L4. HAKKA RADIANCE+1.5L5. ME TIME+2.75L6. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+3L7. CHATER GOLD+3L8. CAN'T GO WONG+6L9. TOY SOLTERO+6L10. SOARING BRONCO+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VOLCANIC SPARK (12.0%) finished 2nd — the winner BILLIONAIRE SECRET was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 VOLCANIC SPARK 12.0% 8.36 2
2 7 ME TIME 11.6% 8.60 5
3 13 CERVIN 10.9% 9.16 13
4 2 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 10.1% 9.88 3
5 14 SOARING BRONCO 8.7% 11.47 10
6 10 CHATER GOLD 7.0% 14.35 7
7 12 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 6.9% 14.54 6
8 3 CAN'T GO WONG 6.4% 15.62 8
9 11 HAKKA RADIANCE 6.0% 16.76 4
10 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 5.7% 17.40 1
11 8 APOLAR FIGHTER 5.3% 18.77 11
12 9 HAPPY HERO 4.3% 23.31 12
13 6 DEVILDOM 2.6% 37.97 14
14 1 TOY SOLTERO 2.4% 41.22 9
VOLCANIC SPARKME TIMECERVINBEAUTY ALLIANCESOARING BRONCOCHATER GOLDCALIFORNIA MOXIECAN'T GO WONGHAKKA RADIANCEBILLIONAIRE SECRET — wonAPOLAR FIGHTERHAPPY HERODEVILDOMTOY SOLTERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 132

PLACE

2 24.5

4 22.5

5 43

QUINELLA

4,5 335.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 74

2,5 166

4,5 118.5

FORECAST

5,4 682

TIERCE

5,4,2 2,364

TRIO

2,4,5 353

FIRST 4

2,4,5,11 3,834

QUARTET

5,4,2,11 81,730

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

2/4 26

2/5 298.5