Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 09:20
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 3 over 1200m. INVINCIBLE SHIELD, ridden by T Marquand and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with LIFELINE EXPRESS second and GLORY ELITE third. The 3.2 favourite SWIFT ASCEND finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | INVINCIBLE SHIELD 1.08.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Marquand · K W Lui | T Marquand | K W Lui | 1 | 8.3 | SH |
| 2 | 12 | LIFELINE EXPRESS E K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 5.5 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | GLORY ELITE H L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 9 | 8.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | LUCY IN THE SKY H/TT H Bowman · Y S Tsui | H Bowman | Y S Tsui | 3 | 3.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | SWIFT ASCEND B/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 7 | 3.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | ALSONSO A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 6 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | I P O BROS P N Wong · D A Hayes | P N Wong | D A Hayes | 2 | 190.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | FRANCIS MEYNELL TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 12 | 18.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | AEROINVINCIBLE P-/PC1/TT H Doyle · P C Ng | H Doyle | P C Ng | 11 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | RUN RUN SMART TT H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 5 | 53.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 5 | MATTERS MOST CP1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 8 | 125.0 | 9-3/4 |
| — | 0 | PRINCE OF PORTY M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | — | — | — |
| — | 7 | FREE PONY B Thompson · T P Yung | B Thompson | T P Yung | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SWIFT ASCEND | 34.4% | 2.91 | 5 |
| 2 | 12 | LIFELINE EXPRESS | 22.3% | 4.48 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCY IN THE SKY | 10.5% | 9.48 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | GLORY ELITE | 8.7% | 11.45 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | INVINCIBLE SHIELD | 7.0% | 14.26 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | FRANCIS MEYNELL | 4.2% | 23.57 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 3.6% | 27.73 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | RUN RUN SMART | 3.3% | 30.51 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | ALSONSO | 2.7% | 36.60 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | MATTERS MOST | 2.0% | 51.20 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | I P O BROS | 1.1% | 88.43 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 83
PLACE
2 28.5
4 29
12 18
QUINELLA
4,12 203.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 122
2,12 70
4,12 64.5
FORECAST
4,12 471
TIERCE
4,12,2 2,911
TRIO
2,4,12 592
FIRST 4
2,3,4,12 323
QUARTET
4,12,2,3 10,977
All pools (1 more)
9TH DOUBLE
2/4 579.5
2/12 87.5