Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 07:40
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 3 over 1800m. STEPS AHEAD, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with LO RIDER second and LIVEANDLETLIVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite FAMILY JEWEL finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | STEPS AHEAD Closed strongly 1.46.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 8 | 5.5 | N |
| 2 | 5 | LO RIDER Closed strongly TT- B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 1 | 5.2 | N |
| 3 | 10 | LIVEANDLETLIVE Led early TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 5 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FAMILY JEWEL Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 6 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | NAVAL FORCE Closed strongly PC1/TT T Marquand · P C Ng | T Marquand | P C Ng | 2 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | MARKWIN Closed strongly H1/TT A Badel · W K Mo | A Badel | W K Mo | 13 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | MIDORI GIANT Closed strongly B1 B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 12 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 41.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPREME AGILITY SR/V/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 4 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | NAMJONG KINGDOM H Doyle · C S Shum | H Doyle | C S Shum | 9 | 61.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | STELLAR GRANDE Closed strongly V-/XB/CP2 M Chadwick · D Eustace | M Chadwick | D Eustace | 14 | 107.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | PACKING HURRICANE B-/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 10 | 30.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 7 | MEGA FORCE K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 3 | 59.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 1 | TOP GUN CP L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 11 | 34.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FAMILY JEWEL | 29.2% | 3.43 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | STEPS AHEAD | 14.9% | 6.73 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | LO RIDER | 11.5% | 8.72 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | MARKWIN | 10.1% | 9.90 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | TOP GUN | 4.7% | 21.50 | 14 |
| 6 | 10 | LIVEANDLETLIVE | 4.1% | 24.38 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | NAVAL FORCE | 3.8% | 26.18 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | MIDORI GIANT | 3.7% | 26.83 | 7 |
| 9 | 14 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 3.7% | 27.23 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | PACKING HURRICANE | 3.6% | 27.68 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | SUPREME AGILITY | 3.2% | 31.52 | 9 |
| 12 | 7 | MEGA FORCE | 2.8% | 35.47 | 13 |
| 13 | 13 | NAMJONG KINGDOM | 2.4% | 41.04 | 10 |
| 14 | 11 | STELLAR GRANDE | 2.4% | 42.19 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 55
PLACE
4 19.5
5 17.5
10 48.5
QUINELLA
4,5 143.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 52.5
4,10 192.5
5,10 172.5
FORECAST
4,5 351
TIERCE
4,5,10 5,578
TRIO
4,5,10 1,076
FIRST 4
4,5,8,10 753
QUARTET
4,5,10,8 21,487
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,5/4,5,10 119,418
6TH DOUBLE
5/4 944.5
5/5 114.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,10,14/2,4,5/4,5,10 1,333,873
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,10,14/2,4,5/Any Combination 5,145