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Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 08:40

Race 9

Class 3 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 3 over 1000m. HORSEPOWER, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with AURORA PATCH second and SUPER FORTUNE third. The 2.8 favourite MAJESTIC EXPRESS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.56.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HORSEPOWER XB/TT 0.56.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 8.8 3/4
2 14 AURORA PATCH V M F Poon · P C Ng 2 68.0 3/4
3 3 SUPER FORTUNE TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 1 24.0 3/4
4 6 SPARKLING FELLOW A Badel · D J Hall 10 21.0 2
5 4 COLOURFUL KING TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace 8 6.0 2-1/2
6 5 MAJESTIC EXPRESS E B Avdulla · J Size 9 2.8 2-3/4
7 7 CRIMSON FLASH L Ferraris · M Newnham 13 4.6 3-1/2
8 12 KNOW AT HEART K Teetan · W Y So 7 11.0 4
9 8 SWEET BRIAR V/TT K De Melo · K W Lui 11 64.0 4-1/4
10 9 LEGENDARY IMPACT TT1 K C Leung · W K Mo 3 155.0 5-1/4
11 11 CANDLELIGHT DINNER H H Doyle · Y S Tsui 14 19.0 5-1/4
12 1 FAST RESPONDER SR P N Wong · D J Whyte 12 11.0 6-1/4
13 10 SAL B Thompson · C W Chang 5 151.0 6-1/2
14 13 VON BAER E C W Wong · D A Hayes 4 309.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HORSEPOWER2. AURORA PATCH+0.75L3. SUPER FORTUNE+0.75L4. SPARKLING FELLOW+2L5. COLOURFUL KING+2.5L6. MAJESTIC EXPRESS+2.75L7. CRIMSON FLASH+3.5L8. KNOW AT HEART+4L9. SWEET BRIAR+4.25L10. LEGENDARY IMPACT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MAJESTIC EXPRESS (16.6%) finished 6th — the winner HORSEPOWER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MAJESTIC EXPRESS 16.6% 6.03 6
2 2 HORSEPOWER 14.4% 6.94 1
3 7 CRIMSON FLASH 12.4% 8.07 7
4 4 COLOURFUL KING 10.8% 9.25 5
5 1 FAST RESPONDER 10.0% 10.01 12
6 3 SUPER FORTUNE 9.2% 10.83 3
7 6 SPARKLING FELLOW 6.5% 15.50 4
8 12 KNOW AT HEART 4.3% 23.05 8
9 11 CANDLELIGHT DINNER 4.0% 24.97 11
10 9 LEGENDARY IMPACT 3.9% 25.84 10
11 8 SWEET BRIAR 3.2% 31.38 9
12 14 AURORA PATCH 2.0% 51.15 2
13 10 SAL 1.7% 58.73 13
14 13 VON BAER 1.1% 94.52 14
MAJESTIC EXPRESSHORSEPOWER — wonCRIMSON FLASHCOLOURFUL KINGFAST RESPONDERSUPER FORTUNESPARKLING FELLOWKNOW AT HEARTCANDLELIGHT DINNERLEGENDARY IMPACTSWEET BRIARAURORA PATCHSALVON BAER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 88

PLACE

2 26

3 47.5

14 124.5

QUINELLA

2,14 1,922

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 201

2,14 465.5

3,14 1,064

FORECAST

2,14 3,832

TIERCE

2,14,3 46,460

TRIO

2,3,14 9,463

FIRST 4

2,3,6,14 36,029

QUARTET

2,14,3,6 566,488

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,11,12/2,3,14 1,372,274

8TH DOUBLE

11/2 733.5

11/14 992.5