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Sha Tin · 2025-02-16 · 08:15

Race 8

Class 2 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-16 was Class 2 over 1600m. JOHANNES BRAHMS, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with SPEED DRAGON second and SUNLIGHT POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite MID WINTER WIND finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.33.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 JOHANNES BRAHMS Closed strongly 1.33.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 10 8.1 SH
2 12 SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K W Lui 6 13.0 SH
3 2 SUNLIGHT POWER Closed strongly CP/H H Bowman · P F Yiu 9 4.4 3/4
4 10 VOYAGE SAMURAI Led early CP-/B1 K C Leung · F C Lor 7 9.7 1-1/4
5 7 MID WINTER WIND Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 4.0 1-1/4
6 4 KARMA TT T Marquand · C Fownes 3 7.6 2-3/4
7 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 13 65.0 3
8 5 WOODFIRE BRO TT- B Thompson · C W Chang 1 76.0 3-1/4
9 3 C P BRAVE Closed strongly V H Bentley · P F Yiu 12 38.0 3-1/4
10 8 MICKLEY Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · J Size 14 6.2 3-3/4
11 14 ROMANTIC THOR B-/XB-/TT- H Doyle · C S Shum 8 31.0 4-1/2
12 9 TOURBILLON PRINCE TT M F Poon · T P Yung 11 55.0 4-3/4
13 13 FLAMING RABBIT SR/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 40.0 5-1/2
14 6 MONEY CATCHER B A Badel · F C Lor 5 43.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOHANNES BRAHMS2. SPEED DRAGON+0.1L3. SUNLIGHT POWER+0.75L4. VOYAGE SAMURAI+1.25L5. MID WINTER WIND+1.25L6. KARMA+2.75L7. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+3L8. WOODFIRE BRO+3.25L9. C P BRAVE+3.25L10. MICKLEY+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MID WINTER WIND (30.0%) finished 5th — the winner JOHANNES BRAHMS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MID WINTER WIND 30.0% 3.34 5
2 2 SUNLIGHT POWER 11.6% 8.60 3
3 10 VOYAGE SAMURAI 9.7% 10.34 4
4 13 FLAMING RABBIT 8.1% 12.40 13
5 4 KARMA 7.9% 12.70 6
6 8 MICKLEY 7.0% 14.37 10
7 11 JOHANNES BRAHMS 4.7% 21.43 1
8 14 ROMANTIC THOR 4.4% 22.99 11
9 12 SPEED DRAGON 3.7% 27.16 2
10 6 MONEY CATCHER 3.4% 29.11 14
11 9 TOURBILLON PRINCE 3.0% 33.11 12
12 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 2.6% 38.28 7
13 3 C P BRAVE 2.6% 38.92 9
14 5 WOODFIRE BRO 1.5% 66.06 8
MID WINTER WINDSUNLIGHT POWERVOYAGE SAMURAIFLAMING RABBITKARMAMICKLEYJOHANNES BRAHMS — wonROMANTIC THORSPEED DRAGONMONEY CATCHERTOURBILLON PRINCETHE GOLDEN SCENERYC P BRAVEWOODFIRE BRO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 81.5

PLACE

2 17.5

11 28

12 37

QUINELLA

11,12 494

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 69.5

2,12 102.5

11,12 155.5

FORECAST

11,12 1,056

TIERCE

11,12,2 5,465

TRIO

2,11,12 906

FIRST 4

2,10,11,12 1,824

QUARTET

11,12,2,10 52,392

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

4/11 836

4/12 157