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Happy Valley · 2025-02-26 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 1 1200m Course C 5 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-26 was Class 1 over 1200m. SON PAK FU, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by NOSE, with COPARTNER PRANCE second and BRAVE STAR third. The 2.2 favourite COPARTNER PRANCE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SON PAK FU B/TT 1.08.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 7.4 NOSE
2 3 COPARTNER PRANCE XB R Moore · K W Lui 4 2.2 NOSE
3 5 BRAVE STAR XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 1 7.7 3/4
4 2 RAGING BLIZZARD P H Bowman · J Size 2 2.7 2
5 1 TAJ DRAGON B Avdulla · P C Ng 5 8.5 2-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SON PAK FU2. COPARTNER PRANCE+0.05L3. BRAVE STAR+0.75L4. RAGING BLIZZARD+2L5. TAJ DRAGON+2.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick RAGING BLIZZARD (44.9%) finished 4th — the winner SON PAK FU was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 RAGING BLIZZARD 44.9% 2.23 4
2 3 COPARTNER PRANCE 20.0% 5.00 2
3 5 BRAVE STAR 15.1% 6.63 3
4 4 SON PAK FU 11.3% 8.82 1
5 1 TAJ DRAGON 8.7% 11.47 5
RAGING BLIZZARDCOPARTNER PRANCEBRAVE STARSON PAK FU — wonTAJ DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 74

PLACE

3 13

4 25

QUINELLA

3,4 68.5

FORECAST

4,3 179

TIERCE

4,3,5 823

TRIO

3,4,5 115