Happy Valley · 2025-02-26 · 14:20
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-02-26 was Class 3 over 1200m. AURORA LADY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with PRAWNS ELEVEN second and GALLANT VALOUR third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AURORA LADY CP/TT 1.09.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 5 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | PRAWNS ELEVEN XB/TT H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 11 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | GALLANT VALOUR B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 4 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | KYRUS DRAGON H/XB K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 6 | 5.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | CALIFORNIA TOUCH TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 4.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | WINGS OF WAR B H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 7 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | MONTA FRUTTA H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 1 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | NORDIC DRAGON TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 10 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | VON BAER B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 9 | 158.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | BUNDLE OF CHARM P- R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 8 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | AUTOMATED TT1 M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 3 | 57.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CALIFORNIA TOUCH | 24.3% | 4.12 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | AURORA LADY | 17.9% | 5.59 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | MONTA FRUTTA | 14.1% | 7.09 | 7 |
| 4 | 1 | BUNDLE OF CHARM | 10.2% | 9.83 | 10 |
| 5 | 4 | KYRUS DRAGON | 8.1% | 12.37 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | GALLANT VALOUR | 6.6% | 15.25 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | PRAWNS ELEVEN | 6.2% | 16.24 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | WINGS OF WAR | 5.4% | 18.51 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | NORDIC DRAGON | 4.6% | 21.80 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | AUTOMATED | 2.1% | 48.09 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | VON BAER | 0.7% | 141.81 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 39
PLACE
2 16.5
6 22.5
8 33.5
QUINELLA
2,8 213.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 49.5
2,8 76.5
6,8 129.5
FORECAST
2,8 358
TIERCE
2,8,6 1,904
TRIO
2,6,8 517
FIRST 4
2,4,6,8 553
QUARTET
2,8,6,4 10,534
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
4/2 208.5
4/8 161