Happy Valley · 2025-03-05 · 18:41
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT 2.16.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) D McDonogh · C S Shum | D McDonogh | C S Shum | 1 | 14.0 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly V/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip | L Hewitson | C H Yip | 3 | 5.3 | SH |
| 3 | 7 | MR ALADDIN Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 4 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE Led early B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 2 | 2.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B-/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 41.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | GOLD TACK CP K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 5 | 9.7 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | SMASHING EXPRESS Closed strongly E R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 6 | 6.2 | 8-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | ON THE LASH PC/XB R Kingscote · P C Ng | R Kingscote | P C Ng | 8 | 16.0 | 16 |
| 9 | 9 | GOLDEN FAIRY A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 10 | 10.0 | 22-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | FRUITY WARRIOR TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 7 | 19.0 | 24-1/2 |
| — | 3 | FURY AND GOLD H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-05 was Class 5 over 2200m. NICE BIRDIE, ridden by D McDonogh and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with SUPER HONG KONG second and MR ALADDIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite CALIFORNIA MOXIE finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 19.1% | 5.24 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | GOLD TACK | 15.8% | 6.31 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 15.6% | 6.40 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | NICE BIRDIE | 13.1% | 7.64 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | ON THE LASH | 11.2% | 8.90 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 8.6% | 11.67 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | FRUITY WARRIOR | 6.0% | 16.63 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG | 5.5% | 18.21 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | MR ALADDIN | 3.2% | 31.51 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 1.9% | 53.35 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 146.5
PLACE
7 32
8 18
10 36
QUINELLA
8,10 331.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 88.5
7,10 250
8,10 95.5
FORECAST
10,8 578
TIERCE
10,8,7 7,985
TRIO
7,8,10 1,298
FIRST 4
2,7,8,10 777
QUARTET
10,8,7,2 33,345