Happy Valley · 2025-03-05 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-05 was Class 5 over 2200m. NICE BIRDIE, ridden by D McDonogh and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with SUPER HONG KONG second and MR ALADDIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite CALIFORNIA MOXIE finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT 2.16.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) D McDonogh · C S Shum | D McDonogh | C S Shum | 1 | 14.0 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly V/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip | L Hewitson | C H Yip | 3 | 5.3 | SH |
| 3 | 7 | MR ALADDIN Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 4 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE Led early B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 2 | 2.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B-/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 41.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | GOLD TACK CP K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 5 | 9.7 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | SMASHING EXPRESS Closed strongly E R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 6 | 6.2 | 8-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | ON THE LASH PC/XB R Kingscote · P C Ng | R Kingscote | P C Ng | 8 | 16.0 | 16 |
| 9 | 9 | GOLDEN FAIRY A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 10 | 10.0 | 22-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | FRUITY WARRIOR TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 7 | 19.0 | 24-1/2 |
| — | 3 | FURY AND GOLD H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 19.1% | 5.24 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | GOLD TACK | 15.8% | 6.31 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 15.6% | 6.40 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | NICE BIRDIE | 13.1% | 7.64 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | ON THE LASH | 11.2% | 8.90 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 8.6% | 11.67 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | FRUITY WARRIOR | 6.0% | 16.63 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG | 5.5% | 18.21 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | MR ALADDIN | 3.2% | 31.51 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 1.9% | 53.35 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 146.5
PLACE
7 32
8 18
10 36
QUINELLA
8,10 331.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 88.5
7,10 250
8,10 95.5
FORECAST
10,8 578
TIERCE
10,8,7 7,985
TRIO
7,8,10 1,298
FIRST 4
2,7,8,10 777
QUARTET
10,8,7,2 33,345