Happy Valley · 2025-03-05 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 3 1650m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-05 was Class 3 over 1650m. EXCELLENCE VALUE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with M UNICORN second and AESTHETICISM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.7 favourite M UNICORN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.65

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	EXCELLENCE VALUE Closed strongly B/TT1 1.39.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · M Newnham	H Bentley	M Newnham	1	123 lb	7.3	N
2	1	M UNICORN Closed strongly P/TT H Bowman · C Fownes	H Bowman	C Fownes	5	130 lb	5.7	N
3	4	AESTHETICISM Closed strongly L Ferraris · P C Ng	L Ferraris	P C Ng	3	125 lb	5.8	1/2
4	2	SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	4	129 lb	6.7	1-1/4
5	5	IVY LEAGUE Led early BO/XB/TT R Kingscote · D J Whyte	R Kingscote	D J Whyte	2	125 lb	7.3	1-3/4
6	7	DEVAS TWELVE CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So	K De Melo	W Y So	7	123 lb	35.0	2-1/2
7	3	GLORIOUS SUCCESS B/TT R Moore · D Eustace	R Moore	D Eustace	8	127 lb	6.4	2-1/2
8	9	BEATO Closed strongly V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	9	117 lb	8.9	3-1/4
9	6	SUPER UNICORN TT M L Yeung · F C Lor	M L Yeung	F C Lor	6	124 lb	6.9	3-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick SUPER UNICORN (22.0%) finished 9th — the winner EXCELLENCE VALUE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	SUPER UNICORN	22.0%	4.54	9	6.9
2	1	M UNICORN	17.9%	5.58	2	5.7
3	9	BEATO	12.9%	7.73	8	8.9
4	4	AESTHETICISM	11.5%	8.72	3	5.8
5	5	IVY LEAGUE	9.4%	10.60	5	7.3
6	3	GLORIOUS SUCCESS	8.6%	11.57	7	6.4
7	2	SAMARKAND	6.4%	15.63	4	6.7
8	7	DEVAS TWELVE	6.1%	16.36	6	35.0
9	8	EXCELLENCE VALUE	5.1%	19.70	1	7.3

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 73

PLACE

1 21.5

4 20.5

8 25.5

QUINELLA

1,8 291

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 60.5

1,8 95.5

4,8 95.5

FORECAST

8,1 552

TIERCE

8,1,4 3,005

TRIO

1,4,8 515

FIRST 4

1,2,4,8 648

QUARTET

8,1,4,2 16,123

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,10,11/1,4,8 10,732

2ND DOUBLE

11/1 168

11/8 994

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