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Happy Valley · 2025-03-05 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 4 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-05 was Class 4 over 1800m. BEAUTY ALLIANCE, ridden by R Moore and trained by J Size, won by 2-1/4, with MISSION STRIKE second and NINJA DERBY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly 1.48.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · J Size 9 4.4 2-1/4
2 5 MISSION STRIKE Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 4.9 2-1/4
3 12 NINJA DERBY Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 15.0 2-1/2
4 9 ME TIME Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 3 5.0 3
5 11 HAKKA RADIANCE Led early B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 10 4.8 4-1/4
6 2 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · F C Lor 2 8.8 4-1/4
7 10 DRAGON DELIGHT B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 5 12.0 5-1/4
8 6 S J TOURBILLON SR/TT J Orman · C H Yip 7 37.0 5-1/2
9 7 QUICK QUICK WIN Closed strongly TT1 R Kingscote · P C Ng 11 96.0 16-3/4
10 8 PHANTOM CYCLONE CP-/B1/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 1 77.0 17-3/4
11 4 TOY SOLTERO H/SR L Hewitson · C W Chang 12 27.0 20-1/4
12 3 ROMANTIC FANTASY B/TT H Bowman · J Richards 8 33.0 46-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY ALLIANCE2. MISSION STRIKE+2.25L3. NINJA DERBY+2.5L4. ME TIME+3L5. HAKKA RADIANCE+4.25L6. CAN'T GO WONG+4.25L7. DRAGON DELIGHT+5.25L8. S J TOURBILLON+5.5L9. QUICK QUICK WIN+16.75L10. PHANTOM CYCLONE+17.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick HAKKA RADIANCE (31.6%) finished 5th — the winner BEAUTY ALLIANCE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 HAKKA RADIANCE 31.6% 3.17 5
2 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 15.2% 6.59 1
3 5 MISSION STRIKE 11.8% 8.50 2
4 2 CAN'T GO WONG 8.4% 11.95 6
5 9 ME TIME 7.9% 12.68 4
6 12 NINJA DERBY 5.2% 19.08 3
7 10 DRAGON DELIGHT 5.2% 19.21 7
8 4 TOY SOLTERO 5.2% 19.26 11
9 3 ROMANTIC FANTASY 4.9% 20.41 12
10 6 S J TOURBILLON 2.8% 35.12 8
11 8 PHANTOM CYCLONE 1.1% 88.57 10
12 7 QUICK QUICK WIN 0.7% 138.88 9
HAKKA RADIANCEBEAUTY ALLIANCE — wonMISSION STRIKECAN'T GO WONGME TIMENINJA DERBYDRAGON DELIGHTTOY SOLTEROROMANTIC FANTASYS J TOURBILLONPHANTOM CYCLONEQUICK QUICK WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 44.5

PLACE

1 16.5

5 18

12 39.5

QUINELLA

1,5 107

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 45

1,12 124.5

5,12 139.5

FORECAST

1,5 233

TIERCE

1,5,12 1,722

TRIO

1,5,12 386

FIRST 4

1,5,9,12 386

QUARTET

1,5,12,9 7,305

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/1 148.5

1/5 32.5