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Happy Valley · 2025-03-05 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-05 was Class 4 over 1200m. HARMONY N HOME, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with BOWSER second and LUCKY PLANET third. The 2.5 favourite BOWSER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 HARMONY N HOME 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K H Ting 5 13.0 1/2
2 2 BOWSER PC-/TT R Moore · P F Yiu 4 2.5 1/2
3 10 LUCKY PLANET B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 3.3 1-3/4
4 5 E UNIVERSE TT K De Melo · C Fownes 2 10.0 2
5 9 ACCOLADE START B/XB/TT R Kingscote · D Eustace 11 85.0 2
6 6 INNO CENTURY D McDonogh · W Y So 3 12.0 2-1/4
7 8 REWARDING TWINKLE CP1/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 10 19.0 2-1/2
8 1 HAPPY UNITED B-/P2/TT H Bowman · J Richards 8 16.0 3
9 3 YOUNG BRAVO XB1 B Thompson · D J Hall 7 65.0 3-1/4
10 4 KING GLORIOSO B J Orman · D J Whyte 6 46.0 3-1/2
11 12 GIMME FIVE B A Badel · F C Lor 12 11.0 3-1/2
12 7 COLONEL B L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 30.0 3-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY N HOME2. BOWSER+0.5L3. LUCKY PLANET+1.75L4. E UNIVERSE+2L5. ACCOLADE START+2L6. INNO CENTURY+2.25L7. REWARDING TWINKLE+2.5L8. HAPPY UNITED+3L9. YOUNG BRAVO+3.25L10. KING GLORIOSO+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LUCKY PLANET (18.3%) finished 3rd — the winner HARMONY N HOME was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LUCKY PLANET 18.3% 5.46 3
2 2 BOWSER 13.3% 7.50 2
3 12 GIMME FIVE 12.0% 8.31 11
4 5 E UNIVERSE 12.0% 8.33 4
5 1 HAPPY UNITED 9.7% 10.35 8
6 6 INNO CENTURY 9.2% 10.92 6
7 11 HARMONY N HOME 9.1% 10.98 1
8 9 ACCOLADE START 5.9% 16.82 5
9 4 KING GLORIOSO 3.3% 30.12 10
10 7 COLONEL 3.0% 33.09 12
11 3 YOUNG BRAVO 2.1% 48.47 9
12 8 REWARDING TWINKLE 2.0% 48.99 7
LUCKY PLANETBOWSERGIMME FIVEE UNIVERSEHAPPY UNITEDINNO CENTURYHARMONY N HOME — wonACCOLADE STARTKING GLORIOSOCOLONELYOUNG BRAVOREWARDING TWINKLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 137.5

PLACE

2 13

10 14

11 33

QUINELLA

2,11 175

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 24.5

2,11 56.5

10,11 63.5

FORECAST

11,2 546

TIERCE

11,2,10 1,698

TRIO

2,10,11 162

FIRST 4

2,5,10,11 258

QUARTET

11,2,10,5 10,093

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/2 79

10/11 1,261