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Happy Valley · 2025-03-12 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-12 was Class 5 over 1000m. CRYSTAL POWERFUL, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by W K Mo, won by HD, with DIAMOND SOARS second and EVER SMART third. The 3.7 favourite ACE TALENT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.56.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/TT 0.56.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · W K Mo 3 9.0 HD
2 11 DIAMOND SOARS B/TT B Thompson · P F Yiu 7 14.0 HD
3 7 EVER SMART TT H Bentley · F C Lor 4 4.5 1
4 12 WIND SPEEDER B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 5 6.6 1-1/2
5 3 MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 9 14.0 1-3/4
6 9 ACE TALENT P-/PC2/TT A Badel · C Fownes 1 3.7 2-3/4
7 10 TIMESTORM V/TT H Bowman · D J Hall 12 25.0 3-1/2
8 6 DAY DAY VICTORY L Hewitson · T P Yung 11 14.0 3-3/4
9 8 WOOD ON FIRE V-/B2/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 6 46.0 4
10 2 HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT E C W Wong · K L Man 2 7.6 4
11 4 SO TREASURE CP2 K Teetan · D J Whyte 10 20.0 5-3/4
12 5 LIFE OF STONE B-/PC1 K De Melo · W Y So 8 48.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CRYSTAL POWERFUL2. DIAMOND SOARS+0.2L3. EVER SMART+1L4. WIND SPEEDER+1.5L5. MODEST GENTLEMAN+1.75L6. ACE TALENT+2.75L7. TIMESTORM+3.5L8. DAY DAY VICTORY+3.75L9. WOOD ON FIRE+4L10. HAPPY HORSE+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ACE TALENT (31.1%) finished 6th — the winner CRYSTAL POWERFUL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ACE TALENT 31.1% 3.22 6
2 7 EVER SMART 16.9% 5.91 3
3 12 WIND SPEEDER 9.5% 10.51 4
4 1 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 7.1% 14.03 1
5 2 HAPPY HORSE 6.4% 15.70 10
6 4 SO TREASURE 6.3% 15.81 11
7 3 MODEST GENTLEMAN 6.1% 16.27 5
8 11 DIAMOND SOARS 5.7% 17.57 2
9 10 TIMESTORM 4.0% 25.12 7
10 6 DAY DAY VICTORY 3.4% 29.22 8
11 8 WOOD ON FIRE 2.4% 41.59 9
12 5 LIFE OF STONE 1.0% 100.49 12
ACE TALENTEVER SMARTWIND SPEEDERCRYSTAL POWERFUL — wonHAPPY HORSESO TREASUREMODEST GENTLEMANDIAMOND SOARSTIMESTORMDAY DAY VICTORYWOOD ON FIRELIFE OF STONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 90.5

PLACE

1 28

7 18

11 40

QUINELLA

1,11 569

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 84

1,11 186.5

7,11 112

FORECAST

1,11 1,146

TIERCE

1,11,7 5,665

TRIO

1,7,11 975

FIRST 4

1,7,11,12 1,557

QUARTET

1,11,7,12 35,148