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Happy Valley · 2025-03-12 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-12 was Class 4 over 1650m. HIGHLAND RAHY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with VIVA GRACIOUSNESS second and THESIS third. The winner led throughout. The 4.7 favourite VIVA GRACIOUSNESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 HIGHLAND RAHY Wire to wire B/TT 1.39.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 6.1 3/4
2 1 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 4.7 3/4
3 2 THESIS Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · Y S Tsui 1 5.2 1-3/4
4 7 FIREFOOT TT J Orman · W Y So 6 22.0 4-1/2
5 8 AMAZING AWARD Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 11 6.2 5-1/2
6 4 THE AZURE Closed strongly L Ferraris · F C Lor 4 5.2 5-1/2
7 9 SMART CITY Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 13.0 5-3/4
8 11 CONFRINGO Closed strongly V/TT H Bentley · W K Mo 8 15.0 6-1/2
9 3 CELESTIAL HARMONY CP1 B Thompson · D A Hayes 5 16.0 8
10 12 SUPER TREASURE CP-/B1 Y L Chung · K H Ting 9 80.0 16-1/4
11 5 THE WAY WE WIN Closed strongly B/TT E C W Wong · J Richards 12 130.0 16-1/2
10 INTREPID WINNER B D McDonogh · C W Chang 2 38.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGHLAND RAHY2. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+0.75L3. THESIS+1.75L4. FIREFOOT+4.5L5. AMAZING AWARD+5.5L6. THE AZURE+5.5L7. SMART CITY+5.75L8. CONFRINGO+6.5L9. CELESTIAL HARMONY+8L10. SUPER TREASURE+16.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VIVA GRACIOUSNESS (23.1%) finished 2nd — the winner HIGHLAND RAHY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 23.1% 4.32 2
2 4 THE AZURE 17.4% 5.76 6
3 2 THESIS 13.9% 7.18 3
4 9 SMART CITY 12.9% 7.77 7
5 8 AMAZING AWARD 11.7% 8.54 5
6 11 CONFRINGO 7.7% 12.96 8
7 6 HIGHLAND RAHY 6.8% 14.77 1
8 7 FIREFOOT 4.7% 21.25 4
9 12 SUPER TREASURE 0.7% 149.34 10
10 5 THE WAY WE WIN 0.6% 167.59 11
11 3 CELESTIAL HARMONY 0.5% 186.03 9
VIVA GRACIOUSNESSTHE AZURETHESISSMART CITYAMAZING AWARDCONFRINGOHIGHLAND RAHY — wonFIREFOOTSUPER TREASURETHE WAY WE WINCELESTIAL HARMONY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 61

PLACE

1 18

2 20

6 28

QUINELLA

1,6 175

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 46

1,6 71

2,6 71

FORECAST

6,1 451

TIERCE

6,1,2 1,821

TRIO

1,2,6 318

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 1,293

QUARTET

6,1,2,7 26,556

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/1/1 386

7/1/6 3,121

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,12/1,2,6 29,359

4TH DOUBLE

1/1 49.5

1/6 567.5