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Happy Valley · 2025-03-12 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-12 was Class 4 over 1200m. FIND MY LOVE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with NEBRASKAN second and TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR third. Victory came as the 4.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FIND MY LOVE B/TT- 1.09.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Whyte 2 4.6 1/2
2 7 NEBRASKAN B1 A Badel · J Size 12 17.0 1/2
3 12 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 7.1 1-1/2
4 2 BOWSER TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 5 5.0 1-3/4
5 9 NEW POWER M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 8.1 2
6 4 GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP CP1/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 8.4 3
7 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B M F Poon · F C Lor 10 43.0 4
8 8 GLORY CLOUD TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 6 6.8 4
9 5 TELECOM DRAGON CP1/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 9 11.0 4-1/4
10 10 KA YING POWER H/SR L Hewitson · T P Yung 3 12.0 5-1/4
11 6 CHILL MASTER TT J Orman · K L Man 4 99.0 6
12 11 THE DOUBLE EAGLE B-/CP1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 128.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIND MY LOVE2. NEBRASKAN+0.5L3. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+1.5L4. BOWSER+1.75L5. NEW POWER+2L6. GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP+3L7. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+4L8. GLORY CLOUD+4L9. TELECOM DRAGON+4.25L10. KA YING POWER+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick BOWSER (23.9%) finished 4th — the winner FIND MY LOVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BOWSER 23.9% 4.18 4
2 1 FIND MY LOVE 12.5% 7.99 1
3 4 GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP 12.1% 8.28 6
4 5 TELECOM DRAGON 11.5% 8.70 9
5 8 GLORY CLOUD 10.1% 9.92 8
6 9 NEW POWER 8.8% 11.33 5
7 10 KA YING POWER 7.3% 13.71 10
8 12 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 5.0% 19.96 3
9 7 NEBRASKAN 4.7% 21.37 2
10 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 3.0% 33.66 7
11 6 CHILL MASTER 0.6% 156.64 11
12 11 THE DOUBLE EAGLE 0.5% 211.46 12
BOWSERFIND MY LOVE — wonGOLDEN FRIENDSHIPTELECOM DRAGONGLORY CLOUDNEW POWERKA YING POWERTRIUMPHANT WARRIORNEBRASKANLUCKY ARCHANGELCHILL MASTERTHE DOUBLE EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 46.5

PLACE

1 20.5

7 49.5

12 24.5

QUINELLA

1,7 467.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 160

1,12 77.5

7,12 204.5

FORECAST

1,7 780

TIERCE

1,7,12 5,289

TRIO

1,7,12 1,201

FIRST 4

1,2,7,12 1,341

QUARTET

1,7,12,2 33,360

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/1 497.5

7/7 190.5