Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2025-03-12 · 14:55

Race 9

Class 3 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-03-12 was Class 3 over 1800m. BEAUTY ALLIANCE, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 3-1/2, with FALLON second and NORTHERN BEAST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly 1.49.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 9 2.1 3-1/2
2 6 FALLON Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · A S Cruz 12 6.8 3-1/2
3 11 NORTHERN BEAST Led early V M F Poon · D J Hall 4 26.0 4
4 9 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes 11 25.0 4-1/2
5 4 STAR MAC Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 7 6.7 5
6 8 CHARITY GAIN Closed strongly XB/TT L Ferraris · D Eustace 8 8.2 5
7 2 ROMANTIC LAOS CP/TT C L Chau · W K Mo 3 13.0 5
8 3 HAMERON R Kingscote · K W Lui 1 22.0 5-1/2
9 12 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC K Teetan · P C Ng 6 20.0 7-1/2
10 5 ALLCASH CP/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 2 50.0 7-3/4
11 7 SIMPLY MAVERICK V- D McDonogh · P F Yiu 5 56.0 10
12 1 TALENTS AMBITION B/XB A Atzeni · M Newnham 10 26.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY ALLIANCE2. FALLON+3.5L3. NORTHERN BEAST+4L4. JUMBO LEGEND+4.5L5. STAR MAC+5L6. CHARITY GAIN+5L7. ROMANTIC LAOS+5L8. HAMERON+5.5L9. WINNING STEPS+7.5L10. ALLCASH+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick BEAUTY ALLIANCE (27.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 27.9% 3.58 1
2 8 CHARITY GAIN 20.6% 4.86 6
3 4 STAR MAC 8.4% 11.88 5
4 2 ROMANTIC LAOS 8.0% 12.52 7
5 12 WINNING STEPS 7.5% 13.41 9
6 11 NORTHERN BEAST 6.4% 15.56 3
7 6 FALLON 5.6% 17.81 2
8 1 TALENTS AMBITION 4.6% 21.56 12
9 3 HAMERON 4.3% 23.07 8
10 9 JUMBO LEGEND 4.0% 25.11 4
11 7 SIMPLY MAVERICK 1.9% 52.11 11
12 5 ALLCASH 0.7% 137.35 10
BEAUTY ALLIANCE — wonCHARITY GAINSTAR MACROMANTIC LAOSWINNING STEPSNORTHERN BEASTFALLONTALENTS AMBITIONHAMERONJUMBO LEGENDSIMPLY MAVERICKALLCASH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 21

PLACE

6 21.5

10 11.5

11 53

QUINELLA

6,10 94

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 39.5

6,11 254

10,11 105.5

FORECAST

10,6 154

TIERCE

10,6,11 2,271

TRIO

6,10,11 622

FIRST 4

6,9,10,11 2,714

QUARTET

10,6,11,9 32,732

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

7/5/6 626

7/5/10 1,057

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,5/6,10,11 29,189

8TH DOUBLE

5/6 64

5/10 77.5

SIX UP

1/6/10/7/5/10 593,606

1,7/1,6/9,10/6,7/4,5/6,10 4,513

6 [A Badel]

1 [J Size]