Happy Valley · 2025-04-09 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-09 was Class 5 over 1650m. VERBIER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with TRADITION second and WINDICATOR FAMILY third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VERBIER Wire to wire V/TT 1.39.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 7 | 4.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | TRADITION Closed strongly B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 4.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | WINDICATOR FAMILY Closed strongly V M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 4 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | MR ALADDIN Closed strongly PC/H1/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 11 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | CERVIN TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 12 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 8 | 41.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | NINJA DERBY H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 3 | 5.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SMASHING EXPRESS H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 9 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | CASA LEGEND P/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 1 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 6 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | WISDOM STAR TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 10 | 124.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NINJA DERBY | 16.6% | 6.01 | 8 |
| 2 | 10 | VERBIER | 14.9% | 6.69 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 12.4% | 8.06 | 9 |
| 4 | 8 | CASA LEGEND | 11.4% | 8.75 | 10 |
| 5 | 7 | TRADITION | 9.9% | 10.06 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | WINDICATOR FAMILY | 9.9% | 10.07 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | SUPERB MOVE | 7.1% | 14.11 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | CERVIN | 6.4% | 15.65 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | MR ALADDIN | 4.2% | 23.74 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY | 3.5% | 28.67 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | WISDOM STAR | 2.1% | 48.40 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | WINNING SEVEN | 1.5% | 67.47 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 40.5
PLACE
4 29.5
7 14.5
10 18
QUINELLA
7,10 119
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 80.5
4,10 77.5
7,10 48
FORECAST
10,7 243
TIERCE
10,7,4 1,603
TRIO
4,7,10 316
FIRST 4
4,5,7,10 1,134
QUARTET
10,7,4,5 21,921