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Happy Valley · 2025-04-09 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-09 was Class 4 over 1200m. SOVEREIGN FUND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-3/4, with GOOD PROSPECT second and HARMONY N HOME third. The 3.2 favourite GOOD PROSPECT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SOVEREIGN FUND B/TT 1.09.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 2 4.5 1-3/4
2 10 GOOD PROSPECT CP/H/XB K C Leung · T P Yung 1 3.2 1-3/4
3 5 HARMONY N HOME Y L Chung · K H Ting 9 23.0 2
4 2 GAMEPLAYER ELITE SR H Bowman · D J Whyte 4 4.2 2-1/4
5 9 EXCELLENT PEERS CP/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 15.0 3
6 7 EXCEED THE WISH H L Hewitson · M Newnham 3 18.0 3-1/4
7 12 CIRCUIT FIERY PC/TT A Badel · W Y So 7 7.5 3-1/4
8 11 YOUNG HORIZON CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes 5 15.0 3-3/4
9 1 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT XB/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 8 25.0 4-1/4
10 6 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE H/P1/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 41.0 4-3/4
11 8 SUPER SICARIO H/XB K De Melo · C Fownes 10 145.0 4-3/4
12 4 KING VICTOR P1 A Hamelin · K L Man 11 92.0 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOVEREIGN FUND2. GOOD PROSPECT+1.75L3. HARMONY N HOME+2L4. GAMEPLAYER ELITE+2.25L5. EXCELLENT PEERS+3L6. EXCEED THE WISH+3.25L7. CIRCUIT FIERY+3.25L8. YOUNG HORIZON+3.75L9. YEE CHEONG SPIRIT+4.25L10. VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GOOD PROSPECT (32.5%) finished 2nd — the winner SOVEREIGN FUND was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 GOOD PROSPECT 32.5% 3.08 2
2 2 GAMEPLAYER ELITE 19.1% 5.24 4
3 9 EXCELLENT PEERS 9.6% 10.46 5
4 3 SOVEREIGN FUND 7.4% 13.59 1
5 1 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT 6.8% 14.64 9
6 11 YOUNG HORIZON 6.0% 16.74 8
7 5 HARMONY N HOME 5.8% 17.29 3
8 12 CIRCUIT FIERY 4.3% 23.32 7
9 7 EXCEED THE WISH 3.7% 27.04 6
10 6 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE 2.1% 47.65 10
11 4 KING VICTOR 2.0% 49.14 12
12 8 SUPER SICARIO 0.8% 122.64 11
GOOD PROSPECTGAMEPLAYER ELITEEXCELLENT PEERSSOVEREIGN FUND — wonYEE CHEONG SPIRITYOUNG HORIZONHARMONY N HOMECIRCUIT FIERYEXCEED THE WISHVICTORYTHIRTYTHREEKING VICTORSUPER SICARIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 45

PLACE

3 17

5 54

10 14

QUINELLA

3,10 72

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 223

3,10 32

5,10 131

FORECAST

3,10 178

TIERCE

3,10,5 3,512

TRIO

3,5,10 537

FIRST 4

2,3,5,10 291

QUARTET

3,10,5,2 9,664

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

2/3 330.5

2/10 22