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Happy Valley · 2025-04-09 · 14:20

Race 8

Class 3 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-09 was Class 3 over 1650m. FLYING FORTRESS, ridden by H Bentley and trained by W K Mo, won by 1, with ROCKET SPADE second and KOLACHI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FLYING FORTRESS Closed strongly TT 1.39.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · W K Mo 1 2.5 1
2 4 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 11 17.0 1
3 5 KOLACHI Closed strongly XB- M Chadwick · D J Whyte 2 137.0 1
4 8 IVY LEAGUE SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 4 9.5 2-1/2
5 3 CAMBRIDGE Closed strongly XB-/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 3 44.0 2-3/4
6 2 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 10.0 3-3/4
7 11 GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 10 3.3 5
8 9 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 7 14.0 5-3/4
9 6 CHARITY TOGETHER B1 M F Poon · D Eustace 5 55.0 7
10 1 OUTGATE Led early H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 8 13.0 8
11 7 SUPER UNICORN TT M L Yeung · F C Lor 9 14.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING FORTRESS2. ROCKET SPADE+1L3. KOLACHI+1L4. IVY LEAGUE+2.5L5. CAMBRIDGE+2.75L6. STAR CONTACT+3.75L7. GOOD LUCK WIN+5L8. SETANTA+5.75L9. CHARITY TOGETHER+7L10. OUTGATE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GOOD LUCK WIN (26.7%) finished 7th — the winner FLYING FORTRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 GOOD LUCK WIN 26.7% 3.74 7
2 10 FLYING FORTRESS 18.2% 5.48 1
3 8 IVY LEAGUE 10.3% 9.70 4
4 7 SUPER UNICORN 8.4% 11.92 11
5 1 OUTGATE 8.3% 12.01 10
6 4 ROCKET SPADE 8.0% 12.53 2
7 6 CHARITY TOGETHER 6.8% 14.64 9
8 2 STAR CONTACT 6.5% 15.30 6
9 9 SETANTA 3.4% 29.74 8
10 3 CAMBRIDGE 2.3% 43.07 5
11 5 KOLACHI 1.0% 105.11 3
GOOD LUCK WINFLYING FORTRESS — wonIVY LEAGUESUPER UNICORNOUTGATEROCKET SPADECHARITY TOGETHERSTAR CONTACTSETANTACAMBRIDGEKOLACHI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 25

PLACE

4 35

5 241.5

10 12

QUINELLA

4,10 262

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 1,659.5

4,10 85

5,10 735

FORECAST

10,4 410

TIERCE

10,4,5 30,250

TRIO

4,5,10 9,042

FIRST 4

4,5,8,10 14,714

QUARTET

10,4,5,8 274,972

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

3/4 133.5

3/10 351.5