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Happy Valley · 2025-04-09 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 4 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-09 was Class 4 over 1800m. HARMONY GALAXY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with CAN'T GO WONG second and FIREFOOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT 1.49.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 10 3.6 SH
2 3 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 4 12.0 SH
3 7 FIREFOOT Closed strongly TT J Orman · W Y So 2 5.3 1-1/4
4 6 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly SR/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 3 17.0 1-3/4
5 1 FLOOF TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 12 74.0 1-3/4
6 12 YOUTH POWER Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 14.0 2
7 8 BRAVE WITNESS Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 6 9.8 3
8 4 TOY SOLTERO Closed strongly SR-/H/XB2 L Hewitson · C W Chang 11 19.0 4
9 11 ME TIME CP/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 8 6.8 4-1/2
10 5 CHARMING STEED TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 7 20.0 6-1/4
11 9 YODA'S CHOICE Led early CP/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 5 5.6 10-3/4
12 10 THE WAY WE WIN PC/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 1 138.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY GALAXY2. CAN'T GO WONG+0.1L3. FIREFOOT+1.25L4. S J TOURBILLON+1.75L5. FLOOF+1.75L6. YOUTH POWER+2L7. BRAVE WITNESS+3L8. TOY SOLTERO+4L9. ME TIME+4.5L10. CHARMING STEED+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FIREFOOT (18.0%) finished 3rd — the winner HARMONY GALAXY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 FIREFOOT 18.0% 5.56 3
2 2 HARMONY GALAXY 18.0% 5.56 1
3 9 YODA'S CHOICE 16.8% 5.95 11
4 11 ME TIME 12.0% 8.31 9
5 8 BRAVE WITNESS 6.4% 15.63 7
6 4 TOY SOLTERO 5.9% 17.03 8
7 3 CAN'T GO WONG 5.5% 18.03 2
8 5 CHARMING STEED 5.1% 19.73 10
9 6 S J TOURBILLON 4.6% 21.86 4
10 1 FLOOF 3.6% 27.84 5
11 12 YOUTH POWER 3.1% 32.06 6
12 10 THE WAY WE WIN 1.0% 98.94 12
FIREFOOTHARMONY GALAXY — wonYODA'S CHOICEME TIMEBRAVE WITNESSTOY SOLTEROCAN'T GO WONGCHARMING STEEDS J TOURBILLONFLOOFYOUTH POWERTHE WAY WE WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 36.5

PLACE

2 15

3 34.5

7 16.5

QUINELLA

2,3 220

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 77.5

2,7 46

3,7 87.5

FORECAST

2,3 372

TIERCE

2,3,7 1,632

TRIO

2,3,7 374

FIRST 4

2,3,6,7 1,252

QUARTET

2,3,7,6 21,477

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/2,3,7 20,620

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 346.5

2/3 122.5