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Happy Valley · 2025-04-09 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-09 was Class 4 over 1200m. NORTHERN FIRE BALL, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with GIDDY UP second and LOVEISINTHEAIR third. The 2.6 favourite TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 NORTHERN FIRE BALL H/TT 1.09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C H Yip 4 10.0 1/2
2 1 GIDDY UP TT B Avdulla · J Richards 1 6.3 1/2
3 4 LOVEISINTHEAIR B/H/TT H Bowman · J Size 2 6.4 3/4
4 5 SPICY SPANGLE H/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 3 8.1 2
5 8 GLORY CLOUD TT H Bentley · C Fownes 6 7.1 2-1/2
6 12 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT A Atzeni · M Newnham 12 20.0 4
7 6 CHILL MASTER TT M L Yeung · K L Man 5 151.0 4
8 10 TEAM HAPPY PC/TT L Hewitson · P C Ng 11 16.0 5
9 11 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT K Teetan · C S Shum 9 2.6 5-1/4
10 7 ORIENTAL SURPRISE CP-/B1 E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 83.0 7
11 9 COSMO NAVIGATOR B M F Poon · C W Chang 10 60.0 10-1/2
12 3 MASTER OF HUMOR TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 79.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NORTHERN FIRE BALL2. GIDDY UP+0.5L3. LOVEISINTHEAIR+0.75L4. SPICY SPANGLE+2L5. GLORY CLOUD+2.5L6. SAME TO YOU+4L7. CHILL MASTER+4L8. TEAM HAPPY+5L9. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+5.25L10. ORIENTAL SURPRISE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LOVEISINTHEAIR (19.7%) finished 3rd — the winner NORTHERN FIRE BALL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 LOVEISINTHEAIR 19.7% 5.08 3
2 2 NORTHERN FIRE BALL 17.8% 5.63 1
3 5 SPICY SPANGLE 16.2% 6.18 4
4 11 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 12.0% 8.33 9
5 1 GIDDY UP 10.2% 9.81 2
6 12 SAME TO YOU 7.4% 13.49 6
7 8 GLORY CLOUD 4.9% 20.27 5
8 10 TEAM HAPPY 4.0% 25.12 8
9 3 MASTER OF HUMOR 3.8% 26.42 12
10 7 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 1.7% 57.19 10
11 9 COSMO NAVIGATOR 1.7% 59.37 11
12 6 CHILL MASTER 0.6% 159.05 7
LOVEISINTHEAIRNORTHERN FIRE BALL — wonSPICY SPANGLETRIUMPHANT WARRIORGIDDY UPSAME TO YOUGLORY CLOUDTEAM HAPPYMASTER OF HUMORORIENTAL SURPRISECOSMO NAVIGATORCHILL MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 106.5

PLACE

1 21.5

2 30.5

4 21

QUINELLA

1,2 286.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 89.5

1,4 63.5

2,4 108.5

FORECAST

2,1 612

TIERCE

2,1,4 3,099

TRIO

1,2,4 401

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 483

QUARTET

2,1,4,5 13,763

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/1 58.5

10/2 394.5