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Happy Valley · 2025-04-16 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 4 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-16 was Class 4 over 1650m. ICONICAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/2, with OWNERS' PRAISE second and STORMI third. The winner led throughout. The 4.6 favourite AMAZING AWARD finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ICONICAL Wire to wire TT 1.39.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 4 10.0 1-1/2
2 9 OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So 8 44.0 1-1/2
3 3 STORMI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 34.0 1-1/2
4 6 AMAZING AWARD Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 6 4.6 2
5 8 LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly XB/CP1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 4.8 2-3/4
6 5 VON BAER CP1 A Atzeni · D A Hayes 1 15.0 2-3/4
7 11 FOREMOST TEDDY B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 7.6 4-1/2
8 2 THESIS Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 7 4.6 5-1/2
9 1 SURE JOYFUL TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 10 15.0 6-1/4
10 4 DILBAGH Closed strongly XB-/SR A Badel · D J Whyte 12 68.0 6-3/4
11 12 SMILING EMPEROR V/XB L Hewitson · K H Ting 9 10.0 8-1/2
12 7 MUSANG KING B K C Leung · F C Lor 3 20.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ICONICAL2. OWNERS' PRAISE+1.5L3. STORMI+1.5L4. AMAZING AWARD+2L5. LUCKY SAM GOR+2.75L6. VON BAER+2.75L7. FOREMOST TEDDY+4.5L8. THESIS+5.5L9. SURE JOYFUL+6.25L10. DILBAGH+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick AMAZING AWARD (20.3%) finished 4th — the winner ICONICAL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 AMAZING AWARD 20.3% 4.93 4
2 8 LUCKY SAM GOR 18.6% 5.37 5
3 10 ICONICAL 14.4% 6.97 1
4 12 SMILING EMPEROR 13.1% 7.61 11
5 5 VON BAER 7.7% 13.06 6
6 2 THESIS 6.8% 14.70 8
7 7 MUSANG KING 4.7% 21.43 12
8 1 SURE JOYFUL 4.4% 22.95 9
9 11 FOREMOST TEDDY 3.8% 26.41 7
10 3 STORMI 2.6% 37.78 3
11 9 OWNERS' PRAISE 2.4% 42.10 2
12 4 DILBAGH 1.3% 76.24 10
AMAZING AWARDLUCKY SAM GORICONICAL — wonSMILING EMPERORVON BAERTHESISMUSANG KINGSURE JOYFULFOREMOST TEDDYSTORMIOWNERS' PRAISEDILBAGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 100.5

PLACE

3 76.5

9 104.5

10 32.5

QUINELLA

9,10 1,632.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 1,060

3,10 424

9,10 524.5

FORECAST

10,9 2,874

TIERCE

10,9,3 49,335

TRIO

3,9,10 11,733

FIRST 4

3,6,9,10 9,436

QUARTET

10,9,3,6 273,358

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,10,11/3,9,10 643,600

8,10,11/3,9,10 288,179

2ND DOUBLE

10/9 185

10/10 352