Happy Valley · 2025-04-16 · 11:45
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-16 was Class 4 over 1650m. ICONICAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/2, with OWNERS' PRAISE second and STORMI third. The winner led throughout. The 4.6 favourite AMAZING AWARD finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ICONICAL Wire to wire TT 1.39.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 4 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 8 | 44.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | STORMI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 34.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | AMAZING AWARD Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 6 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly XB/CP1 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | VON BAER CP1 A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 1 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | FOREMOST TEDDY B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 11 | 7.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | THESIS Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 4.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | SURE JOYFUL TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 10 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | DILBAGH Closed strongly XB-/SR A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 12 | 68.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SMILING EMPEROR V/XB L Hewitson · K H Ting | L Hewitson | K H Ting | 9 | 10.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | MUSANG KING B K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 20.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AMAZING AWARD | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | LUCKY SAM GOR | 18.6% | 5.37 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | ICONICAL | 14.4% | 6.97 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | SMILING EMPEROR | 13.1% | 7.61 | 11 |
| 5 | 5 | VON BAER | 7.7% | 13.06 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | THESIS | 6.8% | 14.70 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | MUSANG KING | 4.7% | 21.43 | 12 |
| 8 | 1 | SURE JOYFUL | 4.4% | 22.95 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 3.8% | 26.41 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | STORMI | 2.6% | 37.78 | 3 |
| 11 | 9 | OWNERS' PRAISE | 2.4% | 42.10 | 2 |
| 12 | 4 | DILBAGH | 1.3% | 76.24 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 100.5
PLACE
3 76.5
9 104.5
10 32.5
QUINELLA
9,10 1,632.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 1,060
3,10 424
9,10 524.5
FORECAST
10,9 2,874
TIERCE
10,9,3 49,335
TRIO
3,9,10 11,733
FIRST 4
3,6,9,10 9,436
QUARTET
10,9,3,6 273,358
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,11/3,9,10 643,600
8,10,11/3,9,10 288,179
2ND DOUBLE
10/9 185
10/10 352