Happy Valley · 2025-04-16 · 14:55
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-16 was Class 3 over 1650m. A AMERIC TE SPECSO, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Size, won by N, with HIGHLAND RAHY second and FORTUNATE SON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite EMBRACES finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly B 1.39.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 1 | 21.0 | N |
| 2 | 7 | HIGHLAND RAHY B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 7 | 4.7 | N |
| 3 | 12 | FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly B H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 5 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | LUCKY TOUCH Closed strongly V-/B2/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 10 | 7.9 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | EMBRACES Closed strongly TT C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 6 | 2.7 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 8 | 5.7 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 12 | 23.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | LOVERO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | NOBLE PURSUIT TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 3 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | LEAN HERO Closed strongly B/XB/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 9 | 36.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | SMART TRIO Led early B-/V1/TT M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 4 | 68.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 6 | WITHOUT DELAY SR/TT1 K De Melo · D Eustace | K De Melo | D Eustace | 11 | 131.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HIGHLAND RAHY | 20.3% | 4.92 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | EMBRACES | 17.4% | 5.75 | 5 |
| 3 | 3 | AESTHETICISM | 17.3% | 5.77 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | LOVERO | 8.7% | 11.44 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 8.1% | 12.42 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | STURDY RUBY | 7.2% | 13.87 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | LUCKY TOUCH | 6.9% | 14.43 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 6.1% | 16.53 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | LEAN HERO | 3.4% | 29.63 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | FORTUNATE SON | 3.3% | 30.10 | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | WITHOUT DELAY | 0.7% | 139.03 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | SMART TRIO | 0.6% | 179.73 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 212.5
PLACE
7 18
11 43.5
12 41.5
QUINELLA
7,11 481.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 135
7,12 121.5
11,12 307.5
FORECAST
11,7 1,318
TIERCE
11,7,12 17,734
TRIO
7,11,12 2,704
FIRST 4
7,8,11,12 4,219
QUARTET
11,7,12,8 105,046
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
1/5/7 547
1/5/11 15,019
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,8/7,11,12 1,204,547
8TH DOUBLE
5/7 29
5/11 995
SIX UP
4,7/3,6/6,7/1,8/5,6/7,11 6,470
4 [A Atzeni] —
2 [M Newnham] —