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Happy Valley · 2025-04-16 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-16 was Class 5 over 1000m. DAY DAY VICTORY, ridden by A Badel and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with RAGNARR second and ACE TALENT third. The 3.9 favourite DIAMOND SOARS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 0.56.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 DAY DAY VICTORY 0.56.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · T P Yung 4 6.3 1/2
2 7 RAGNARR CP/H/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 8 8.6 1/2
3 11 ACE TALENT PC/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 12 14.0 3/4
4 9 PATCH OF WATCH B/TT Z Purton · K L Man 5 4.9 3/4
5 4 CAMP FIRE SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 17.0 1-1/4
6 5 HAPPY TANGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 8.8 1-3/4
7 12 DIAMOND SOARS B/TT E C W Wong · P F Yiu 3 3.9 2
8 2 SPICY SO SMART V/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 6 14.0 2
9 1 NOTTHESILLYONE TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 10 25.0 2-1/2
10 6 MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 7 10.0 2-1/2
11 3 SOLAR UP H/P/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 11 66.0 6-1/2
12 8 URBAN TRIUMPH V-/TT- K C Leung · C W Chang 9 48.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DAY DAY VICTORY2. RAGNARR+0.5L3. ACE TALENT+0.75L4. PATCH OF WATCH+0.75L5. CAMP FIRE+1.25L6. HAPPY TANGO+1.75L7. DIAMOND SOARS+2L8. SPICY SO SMART+2L9. NOTTHESILLYONE+2.5L10. MODEST GENTLEMAN+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PATCH OF WATCH (27.1%) finished 4th — the winner DAY DAY VICTORY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 PATCH OF WATCH 27.1% 3.69 4
2 7 RAGNARR 18.5% 5.39 2
3 12 DIAMOND SOARS 13.1% 7.65 7
4 10 DAY DAY VICTORY 10.9% 9.19 1
5 6 MODEST GENTLEMAN 5.8% 17.33 10
6 11 ACE TALENT 5.7% 17.65 3
7 8 URBAN TRIUMPH 3.8% 26.24 12
8 5 HAPPY TANGO 3.4% 29.65 6
9 4 CAMP FIRE 3.1% 32.36 5
10 3 SOLAR UP 3.0% 32.81 11
11 1 NOTTHESILLYONE 2.9% 34.06 9
12 2 SPICY SO SMART 2.7% 36.68 8
PATCH OF WATCHRAGNARRDIAMOND SOARSDAY DAY VICTORY — wonMODEST GENTLEMANACE TALENTURBAN TRIUMPHHAPPY TANGOCAMP FIRESOLAR UPNOTTHESILLYONESPICY SO SMART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 63.5

PLACE

7 25.5

10 23.5

11 46

QUINELLA

7,10 299

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 100.5

7,11 193.5

10,11 177

FORECAST

10,7 655

TIERCE

10,7,11 8,012

TRIO

7,10,11 1,460

FIRST 4

7,9,10,11 1,894

QUARTET

10,7,11,9 47,123