Happy Valley · 2025-04-16 · 20:41
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 8 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | DRAGON STAR Closed strongly V-/XB/B2 Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 8.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | SOARING BRONCO Closed strongly PC/TT K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 3 | 2.7 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly V/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 10 | 34.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly P-/H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | MIGHTY COMMANDER Led early TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 11 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | ACCOLADE START Closed strongly TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 9 | 21.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | SILVER KING Closed strongly H/P/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | GENERAL SMART B-/XB/CP2/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 5 | 83.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | FOREVER GLORIOUS V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 27.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | CELESTIAL HARMONY CP-/B1 E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 12 | 53.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | QINGYUAN STAR B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 12.0 | 17-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-16 was Class 4 over 1650m. SUNDAY'S SERENADE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with DRAGON STAR second and SOARING BRONCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite SOARING BRONCO finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DRAGON STAR | 22.0% | 4.54 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | SOARING BRONCO | 21.9% | 4.57 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 16.9% | 5.91 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 7.5% | 13.40 | 6 |
| 5 | 9 | QINGYUAN STAR | 6.9% | 14.42 | 12 |
| 6 | 12 | SILVER KING | 6.5% | 15.27 | 8 |
| 7 | 11 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 5.7% | 17.65 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | ACCOLADE START | 3.6% | 28.00 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 3.4% | 29.35 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 3.1% | 32.65 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | CELESTIAL HARMONY | 1.5% | 64.74 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | GENERAL SMART | 1.0% | 98.10 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 36.5
PLACE
3 17
5 11.5
6 24
QUINELLA
3,6 176.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 26.5
3,6 61
5,6 41
FORECAST
3,6 196
TIERCE
3,6,5 493
TRIO
3,5,6 97
FIRST 4
3,5,6,11 522
QUARTET
3,6,5,11 7,483
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
10/7/3 4,641
10/7/6 1,732
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,7/3,5,6 1,468
4TH DOUBLE
7/3 554
7/6 190