Happy Valley · 2025-04-16 · 13:50
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-16 was Class 4 over 1200m. FATAL BLOW, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with GLORY B second and SOLAR RIVER third. The 3.5 favourite LOVING VIBES finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FATAL BLOW 1.09.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 4 | 12.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | GLORY B CP H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 6 | 3.6 | N |
| 3 | 11 | SOLAR RIVER CP/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 9.6 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | EVERSTAR CP M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 8 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | LOVING VIBES CP2 Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 7 | 3.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | BUNTA BABY CP-/B2/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 2 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | KNOW AT HEART K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 3 | 9.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | FAIRY HORSE SB/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 11 | 6.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | MY DAY MY WAY CP C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 10 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | SHOTGUN A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 12 | 96.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | COSMO LIGHT CP1/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 5 | 100.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | CASA RUBICK CP1/TT1 L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 9 | 86.0 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LOVING VIBES | 35.6% | 2.81 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | GLORY B | 17.2% | 5.82 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | FAIRY HORSE | 12.2% | 8.21 | 8 |
| 4 | 11 | SOLAR RIVER | 9.8% | 10.18 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | KNOW AT HEART | 6.8% | 14.61 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | FATAL BLOW | 5.2% | 19.16 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | MY DAY MY WAY | 4.3% | 23.14 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | EVERSTAR | 2.9% | 34.95 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | CASA RUBICK | 2.1% | 47.07 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | SHOTGUN | 1.8% | 54.28 | 10 |
| 11 | 3 | BUNTA BABY | 1.3% | 78.28 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | COSMO LIGHT | 0.7% | 138.57 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 126.5
PLACE
1 36.5
8 15.5
11 28.5
QUINELLA
1,8 254.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 90
1,11 156.5
8,11 70.5
FORECAST
1,8 621
TIERCE
1,8,11 4,641
TRIO
1,8,11 734
FIRST 4
1,4,8,11 2,615
QUARTET
1,8,11,4 61,771
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,7/1,8,11 46,953
6TH DOUBLE
6/1 439
6/8 65
TRIPLE TRIO
3,5,6/4,6,7/1,8,11 866,873
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,5,6/4,6,7/Any Combination 1,437