Happy Valley · 2025-04-16 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 3 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-16 was Class 3 over 1200m. CRIMSON FLASH, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won by 3/4, with KING MILES second and CHATEAUNEUF third. The 3.1 favourite STORMING DRAGON finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.04

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	CRIMSON FLASH B1 1.09.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham	A Atzeni	M Newnham	6	118 lb	8.2	3/4
2	7	KING MILES TT L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	8	118 lb	4.3	3/4
3	4	CHATEAUNEUF B-/CP1/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes	L Ferraris	D A Hayes	7	124 lb	14.0	3/4
4	5	STORMING DRAGON V/TT K Teetan · J Richards	K Teetan	J Richards	1	122 lb	3.1	2-1/4
5	3	EASON H Bowman · P F Yiu	H Bowman	P F Yiu	3	125 lb	4.4	2-1/4
6	1	BUNDLE OF CHARM P- A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	2	135 lb	7.0	3-1/4
7	2	NUCLEOZOR TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	9	130 lb	14.0	5-1/4
8	9	CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	5	116 lb	47.0	5-1/2
9	10	UP WITH CHARM B M L Yeung · D J Whyte	M L Yeung	D J Whyte	4	115 lb	82.0	18-1/4
—	8	SHINYU KOKOROE A Hamelin · D A Hayes	A Hamelin	D A Hayes	—	118 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick EASON (24.8%) finished 5th — the winner CRIMSON FLASH was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	EASON	24.8%	4.04	5	4.4
2	5	STORMING DRAGON	15.7%	6.38	4	3.1
3	6	CRIMSON FLASH	15.6%	6.40	1	8.2
4	2	NUCLEOZOR	13.5%	7.40	7	14.0
5	7	KING MILES	11.3%	8.85	2	4.3
6	1	BUNDLE OF CHARM	8.6%	11.60	6	7.0
7	4	CHATEAUNEUF	6.8%	14.70	3	14.0
8	9	CALIFORNIA DEEPLY	2.7%	36.83	8	47.0
9	10	UP WITH CHARM	1.0%	101.46	9	82.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 82

PLACE

4 33.5

6 25.5

7 17

QUINELLA

6,7 171.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 142.5

4,7 87.5

6,7 60.5

FORECAST

6,7 360

TIERCE

6,7,4 3,429

TRIO

4,6,7 806

FIRST 4

4,5,6,7 384

QUARTET

6,7,4,5 11,297

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/6 156

3/7 54.5

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