Happy Valley · 2025-04-30 · 18:41
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 11 | 6.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | MEDIC ELITE PC/H1/TT M L Yeung · P C Ng | M L Yeung | P C Ng | 2 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | FOREMOST TEDDY Led early B/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 4 | 5.2 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | FIRE BALL CP K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 5 | 32.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | YOUNG HORIZON H E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 3 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | ORIENTAL TYCOON B- K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 10 | 95.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | U S S CONSTITUTION Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 12 | 16.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | GOLD TACK Closed strongly CP M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | MILES AWAY B/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 6 | 92.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | SKY PROPHET Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 8 | 9.7 | 10 |
| 12 | 3 | CERVIN TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 7 | 5.3 | 29-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-30 was Class 5 over 1650m. CALIFORNIA MOXIE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with HARRY'S HERO second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite HARRY'S HERO finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 20.6% | 4.85 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 15.5% | 6.43 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | CERVIN | 11.7% | 8.57 | 12 |
| 4 | 10 | HARRY'S HERO | 9.2% | 10.91 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | U S S CONSTITUTION | 8.0% | 12.49 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | MEDIC ELITE | 7.6% | 13.20 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | FIRE BALL | 7.4% | 13.50 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | SKY PROPHET | 6.1% | 16.26 | 11 |
| 9 | 11 | GOLD TACK | 5.1% | 19.47 | 9 |
| 10 | 2 | YOUNG HORIZON | 4.8% | 20.92 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | MILES AWAY | 2.5% | 40.28 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | ORIENTAL TYCOON | 1.5% | 68.33 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 67
PLACE
5 21
10 16
12 30
QUINELLA
5,10 133.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 51
5,12 102.5
10,12 74
FORECAST
5,10 265
TIERCE
5,10,12 2,240
TRIO
5,10,12 461
FIRST 4
1,5,10,12 539
QUARTET
5,10,12,1 11,642