Happy Valley · 2025-04-30 · 14:20
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-30 was Class 3 over 1650m. A AMERIC TE SPECSO, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Size, won by N, with FLYING FORTRESS second and SETANTA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite DEFINITIVE finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly B 1.38.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 6 | 17.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | FLYING FORTRESS Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W K Mo | H Bentley | W K Mo | 10 | 8.4 | N |
| 3 | 12 | SETANTA Closed strongly B-/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 4 | 37.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 21.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | BEAUTY CRESCENT TT J Orman · A S Cruz | J Orman | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | HAMERON Closed strongly Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 8 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | DEFINITIVE B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 7 | 3.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | SKY HEART Led early V/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 2 | 4.8 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | CAMBRIDGE Closed strongly XB2/TT K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 11 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | STAR CONTACT B/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 12 | 60.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | ALLCASH CP/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum | E C W Wong | C S Shum | 3 | 26.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | KOLACHI M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 5 | 28.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SKY HEART | 20.7% | 4.84 | 8 |
| 2 | 10 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 11.8% | 8.47 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | DEFINITIVE | 11.4% | 8.80 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 9.8% | 10.22 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | HAMERON | 8.9% | 11.27 | 6 |
| 6 | 8 | FLYING FORTRESS | 8.9% | 11.29 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | STURDY RUBY | 7.5% | 13.38 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | STAR CONTACT | 6.4% | 15.65 | 10 |
| 9 | 7 | ALLCASH | 4.2% | 23.62 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | SETANTA | 3.8% | 26.13 | 3 |
| 11 | 9 | KOLACHI | 3.6% | 27.46 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | CAMBRIDGE | 3.1% | 32.42 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 179
PLACE
6 34.5
8 26.5
12 72.5
QUINELLA
6,8 486.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 137
6,12 452.5
8,12 334
FORECAST
6,8 944
TIERCE
6,8,12 26,510
TRIO
6,8,12 5,451
FIRST 4
6,8,11,12 8,663
QUARTET
6,8,12,11 200,726
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
3/6 1,233.5
3/8 137.5