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Happy Valley · 2025-04-30 · 13:50

Race 7

Class 3 1200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-30 was Class 3 over 1200m. HAPPY FAT CAT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by W K Mo, won by 1/2, with SPICY GOLD second and STORM RIDER third. The 4.9 favourite SOLID CAR finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HAPPY FAT CAT TT 1.09.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · W K Mo 11 14.0 1/2
2 1 SPICY GOLD P/TT A Badel · M Newnham 1 5.4 1/2
2 5 STORM RIDER CP B Avdulla · D A Hayes 6 6.5 1/2
4 11 GALAXY WITNESS B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 2 5.0 1-3/4
5 2 GOLDEN EMPIRE B K De Melo · K W Lui 9 30.0 2
6 12 WRITTEN CASA B/TT M F Poon · J Richards 3 25.0 2-1/4
7 9 LO PAN SPIRIT B/TT Z Purton · K H Ting 10 6.2 2-3/4
8 6 FIND MY LOVE B M Chadwick · D J Whyte 4 9.6 3
9 7 SOLID CAR K Teetan · D J Hall 5 4.9 3-3/4
10 10 CHARMING BABE TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 28.0 4-1/4
11 8 DENFIELD TT A Atzeni · C S Shum 7 29.0 5
4 VICTORY MOMENTS E C W Wong · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY FAT CAT2. SPICY GOLD+0.5L2. STORM RIDER+0.5L4. GALAXY WITNESS+1.75L5. GOLDEN EMPIRE+2L6. WRITTEN CASA+2.25L7. LO PAN SPIRIT+2.75L8. FIND MY LOVE+3L9. SOLID CAR+3.75L10. CHARMING BABE+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SPICY GOLD (19.8%) finished 2nd — the winner HAPPY FAT CAT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SPICY GOLD 19.8% 5.04 2
2 5 STORM RIDER 18.6% 5.38 2
3 6 FIND MY LOVE 12.3% 8.15 8
4 11 GALAXY WITNESS 10.3% 9.69 4
5 9 LO PAN SPIRIT 9.3% 10.73 7
6 3 HAPPY FAT CAT 9.0% 11.10 1
7 7 SOLID CAR 5.4% 18.46 9
8 8 DENFIELD 4.7% 21.09 11
9 2 GOLDEN EMPIRE 3.7% 27.40 5
10 12 WRITTEN CASA 3.5% 28.79 6
11 10 CHARMING BABE 3.4% 29.55 10
SPICY GOLDSTORM RIDERFIND MY LOVEGALAXY WITNESSLO PAN SPIRITHAPPY FAT CAT — wonSOLID CARDENFIELDGOLDEN EMPIREWRITTEN CASACHARMING BABE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 148.5

PLACE

1 19.5

3 33

5 20.5

QUINELLA

1,3 141.5

3,5 243

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 85

1,5 58

3,5 141.5

FORECAST

3,1 271

3,5 419

TIERCE

3,1,5 1,356

3,5,1 1,404

TRIO

1,3,5 316

FIRST 4

1,3,5,11 1,226

QUARTET

3,1,5,11 16,677

3,5,1,11 18,764

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,10/1,3,5 32,941

6TH DOUBLE

10/1 18.5

10/3 688

10/5 19.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,2,4/6,9,10/1,3,5 1,514,842

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,4/6,9,10/Any Combination 30,296