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Happy Valley · 2025-04-30 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-30 was Class 4 over 1800m. HARMONY GALAXY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with CAN'T GO WONG second and PRESTIGE GOOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite MISSION STRIKE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.48.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT 1.48.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · C S Shum 11 20.0 3/4
2 4 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 5 14.0 3/4
3 2 PRESTIGE GOOD V/TT- J Orman · P F Yiu 6 4.5 1-1/2
4 9 SOARING BRONCO Closed strongly PC/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 8 7.8 1-1/2
5 6 MISSION STRIKE Closed strongly B1 Z Purton · M Newnham 9 3.5 1-3/4
6 8 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 1 12.0 2
7 10 ME TIME CP/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 8.3 2
8 5 CAPITAL LEGEND TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 32.0 2-1/4
9 12 ESCAPE ROUTE H A Badel · J Size 4 8.7 3-1/4
10 11 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Led early K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 59.0 4
11 3 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 12.0 6
12 7 VON BAER CP- A Atzeni · D A Hayes 12 58.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY GALAXY2. CAN'T GO WONG+0.75L3. PRESTIGE GOOD+1.5L4. SOARING BRONCO+1.5L5. MISSION STRIKE+1.75L6. S J TOURBILLON+2L7. ME TIME+2L8. CAPITAL LEGEND+2.25L9. ESCAPE ROUTE+3.25L10. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MISSION STRIKE (14.7%) finished 5th — the winner HARMONY GALAXY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MISSION STRIKE 14.7% 6.81 5
2 2 PRESTIGE GOOD 14.1% 7.07 3
3 3 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 11.0% 9.10 11
4 9 SOARING BRONCO 10.5% 9.52 4
5 12 ESCAPE ROUTE 9.6% 10.43 9
6 7 VON BAER 7.6% 13.16 12
7 8 S J TOURBILLON 7.5% 13.30 6
8 1 HARMONY GALAXY 7.0% 14.29 1
9 4 CAN'T GO WONG 6.8% 14.78 2
10 10 ME TIME 5.1% 19.79 7
11 5 CAPITAL LEGEND 4.2% 23.93 8
12 11 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 2.0% 50.74 10
MISSION STRIKEPRESTIGE GOODVIVA GRACIOUSNESSSOARING BRONCOESCAPE ROUTEVON BAERS J TOURBILLONHARMONY GALAXY — wonCAN'T GO WONGME TIMECAPITAL LEGENDARTHUR'S KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 203.5

PLACE

1 49.5

2 16.5

4 31

QUINELLA

1,4 848

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 140.5

1,4 240.5

2,4 85

FORECAST

1,4 1,881

TIERCE

1,4,2 7,256

TRIO

1,2,4 1,096

FIRST 4

1,2,4,9 1,356

QUARTET

1,4,2,9 34,239

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/2/1 5,394

7/2/4 479

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/1,2,4 14,935

4TH DOUBLE

2/1 916

2/4 59.5