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Happy Valley · 2025-04-30 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. EVERSTAR, ridden by J Orman and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/4, with LUCKY ARCHANGEL second and NEBRASKAN third. The 2.7 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 EVERSTAR CP 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · Y S Tsui 4 4.2 1-1/4
2 4 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B M F Poon · F C Lor 6 12.0 1-1/4
3 5 NEBRASKAN B H Bowman · J Size 9 2.7 3
4 6 METAL KING K C Leung · K H Ting 3 32.0 3-1/4
5 7 SPICY SPANGLE H/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 8 12.0 3-1/4
6 8 RICH HORSE H/XB K Teetan · D J Hall 5 52.0 3-1/2
7 10 SUPER SICARIO XB-/H K De Melo · C Fownes 11 121.0 5
8 1 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT XB/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 11.0 5
9 12 KA YING POWER H/SR M L Yeung · T P Yung 1 12.0 5-1/2
10 9 COLONEL B L Hewitson · M Newnham 10 44.0 8
11 11 COSMO NAVIGATOR B M Chadwick · C W Chang 12 98.0 10-1/4
3 HAPPY TRIO B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 5.4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EVERSTAR2. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+1.25L3. NEBRASKAN+3L4. METAL KING+3.25L5. SPICY SPANGLE+3.25L6. RICH HORSE+3.5L7. SUPER SICARIO+5L8. YEE CHEONG SPIRIT+5L9. KA YING POWER+5.5L10. COLONEL+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NEBRASKAN (22.5%) finished 3rd — the winner EVERSTAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 NEBRASKAN 22.5% 4.45 3
2 1 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT 19.7% 5.07 8
3 12 KA YING POWER 16.2% 6.19 9
4 2 EVERSTAR 14.0% 7.17 1
5 7 SPICY SPANGLE 9.1% 10.98 5
6 4 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 7.6% 13.08 2
7 6 METAL KING 3.4% 29.69 4
8 8 RICH HORSE 2.7% 36.38 6
9 11 COSMO NAVIGATOR 1.8% 54.51 11
10 9 COLONEL 1.7% 59.31 10
11 10 SUPER SICARIO 1.3% 75.46 7
NEBRASKANYEE CHEONG SPIRITKA YING POWEREVERSTAR — wonSPICY SPANGLELUCKY ARCHANGELMETAL KINGRICH HORSECOSMO NAVIGATORCOLONELSUPER SICARIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 42.5

PLACE

2 16

4 29.5

5 12

QUINELLA

2,4 281.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 84

2,5 26

4,5 56

FORECAST

2,4 400

TIERCE

2,4,5 1,052

TRIO

2,4,5 162

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 1,151

QUARTET

2,4,5,6 24,053

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/2 130.5

7/4 77.5