Happy Valley · 2025-04-30 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-04-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. EVERSTAR, ridden by J Orman and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/4, with LUCKY ARCHANGEL second and NEBRASKAN third. The 2.7 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | EVERSTAR CP 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | NEBRASKAN B H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 9 | 2.7 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | METAL KING K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | SPICY SPANGLE H/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 8 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | RICH HORSE H/XB K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 5 | 52.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | SUPER SICARIO XB-/H K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 11 | 121.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT XB/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | KA YING POWER H/SR M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 1 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | COLONEL B L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 10 | 44.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 12 | 98.0 | 10-1/4 |
| — | 3 | HAPPY TRIO B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.4 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | NEBRASKAN | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT | 19.7% | 5.07 | 8 |
| 3 | 12 | KA YING POWER | 16.2% | 6.19 | 9 |
| 4 | 2 | EVERSTAR | 14.0% | 7.17 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | SPICY SPANGLE | 9.1% | 10.98 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 7.6% | 13.08 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | METAL KING | 3.4% | 29.69 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | RICH HORSE | 2.7% | 36.38 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 1.8% | 54.51 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | COLONEL | 1.7% | 59.31 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | SUPER SICARIO | 1.3% | 75.46 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 42.5
PLACE
2 16
4 29.5
5 12
QUINELLA
2,4 281.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 84
2,5 26
4,5 56
FORECAST
2,4 400
TIERCE
2,4,5 1,052
TRIO
2,4,5 162
FIRST 4
2,4,5,6 1,151
QUARTET
2,4,5,6 24,053
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/2 130.5
7/4 77.5