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Sha Tin · 2025-05-04 · 09:55

Race 11

Class 3 1400m Course B 13 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-04 was Class 3 over 1400m. WINNING OVATION, ridden by A Badel and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with YUEN LONG ELITE second and THE ABSOLUTE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite YUEN LONG ELITE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 WINNING OVATION Closed strongly TT 1.21.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · A S Cruz 1 6.7 1
2 9 YUEN LONG ELITE Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 5 3.2 1
3 13 THE ABSOLUTE Closed strongly CP-/XB/B1/TT L Hewitson · K H Ting 3 39.0 1-3/4
4 4 POPE CODY Closed strongly TT J Orman · Y S Tsui 10 81.0 2
5 7 SUPER INFINITY B H Bentley · M Newnham 6 8.8 2
6 1 BRILLIANT EXPRESS B Avdulla · J Size 13 5.1 2-1/2
7 5 LUPO SOLITARIO CP-/B1 L Ferraris · F C Lor 2 41.0 4-1/4
8 12 SAVVY WARRIOR XB K Teetan · D Eustace 4 45.0 4-3/4
9 3 NEW FUTURE FOLKS TT1 B Thompson · C W Chang 9 16.0 5-3/4
10 6 PRESTIGE RICKY XB/H1 C L Chau · P F Yiu 7 107.0 6
11 10 MR VIGOR Closed strongly TT H T Mo · C S Shum 11 254.0 10-1/4
12 2 THE BOOM BOX Z Purton · W Y So 8 3.5 16-1/2
13 11 RAGGA BOMB XB A Atzeni · D Eustace 12 145.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING OVATION2. YUEN LONG ELITE+1L3. THE ABSOLUTE+1.75L4. POPE CODY+2L5. SUPER INFINITY+2L6. BRILLIANT EXPRESS+2.5L7. LUPO SOLITARIO+4.25L8. SAVVY WARRIOR+4.75L9. NEW FUTURE FOLKS+5.75L10. PRESTIGE RICKY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick THE BOOM BOX (33.5%) finished 12th — the winner WINNING OVATION was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 THE BOOM BOX 33.5% 2.98 12
2 1 BRILLIANT EXPRESS 23.1% 4.34 6
3 9 YUEN LONG ELITE 15.5% 6.45 2
4 7 SUPER INFINITY 9.9% 10.07 5
5 8 WINNING OVATION 6.0% 16.76 1
6 12 SAVVY WARRIOR 3.0% 33.59 8
7 3 NEW FUTURE FOLKS 2.5% 39.85 9
8 13 THE ABSOLUTE 1.8% 54.24 3
9 5 LUPO SOLITARIO 1.5% 67.02 7
10 11 RAGGA BOMB 1.1% 89.48 13
11 4 POPE CODY 1.1% 92.39 4
12 6 PRESTIGE RICKY 0.6% 160.93 10
13 10 MR VIGOR 0.4% 279.05 11
THE BOOM BOXBRILLIANT EXPRESSYUEN LONG ELITESUPER INFINITYWINNING OVATION — wonSAVVY WARRIORNEW FUTURE FOLKSTHE ABSOLUTELUPO SOLITARIORAGGA BOMBPOPE CODYPRESTIGE RICKYMR VIGOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 67.5

PLACE

8 20.5

9 13

13 82.5

QUINELLA

8,9 94.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 35

8,13 290.5

9,13 178

FORECAST

8,9 223

TIERCE

8,9,13 4,486

TRIO

8,9,13 965

FIRST 4

4,8,9,13 21,145

QUARTET

8,9,13,4 255,203

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

10/8 730.5

10/9 79.5

2ND TREBLE

5/10/8 2,714

5/10/9 273

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

7,9,10/8,9,13 34,480

SIX UP

7,9/5,6/4,5/4,5/9,10/8,9 2,265

9/5/4/5/10/8 1,219,010

2 [A S Cruz]

1 [Z Purton]