Sha Tin · 2025-05-04 · 08:10
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-04 was Group 3 over 2400m. BUNDLE AWARD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by SH, with NOISY BOY second and WINNING DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BUNDLE AWARD Closed strongly E 2.29.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 1.8 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | NOISY BOY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 4 | 6.1 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | WINNING DRAGON Led early TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 3 | 9.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | BRAVEHEARTS Closed strongly M F Poon · M Newnham | M F Poon | M Newnham | 6 | 4.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | FIVE G PATCH TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 1 | 7.2 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | LA CITY BLANCHE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 20.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BUNDLE AWARD | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | BRAVEHEARTS | 18.1% | 5.54 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | FIVE G PATCH | 9.6% | 10.45 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | NOISY BOY | 8.9% | 11.26 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | WINNING DRAGON | 8.3% | 11.99 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 1.7% | 58.33 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 18.5
PLACE
4 14
5 27.5
QUINELLA
4,5 50
FORECAST
4,5 87
TIERCE
4,5,3 389
TRIO
3,4,5 125
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 47
QUARTET
4,5,3,6 1,120
7TH DOUBLE
5/4 215.5
5/5 109.5